Tomorrows current outlook from the NWS SPC: DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NERN QUARTER OF TX AND VICINITY... ...SYNOPSIS... WITHIN AN UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER ERN CANADA AND THE ADJACENT NERN CONUS...A SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD OUT OF ERN NM ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK. VARIOUS MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH...AS NRN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS EVENTUALLY INTERACTS/COALESCES WITH THE SRN STREAM FEATURE. WITH THIS INTERACTION/PHASING BEING HANDLED POORLY BY THE MODELS...ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS -- AND FRONTAL EVOLUTION/ADVANCE -- IS ALSO NOT WELL HANDLED. OVERALL HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND A FRONTAL ADVANCE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS REGION THROUGH A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS APPARENT ACROSS THIS REGION. ...NERN QUARTER OF TX AND VICINITY... AFOREMENTIONED/SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS EMERGING ON DAY 2 COMPLICATE ATTEMPTS TO ASCERTAIN DETAILS OF THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE REGION. STILL...BROAD INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE E TX VICINITY ON SATURDAY. ATTM...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK AND ADJACENT NWRN TX...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING VORT MAX. HERE THOUGH...COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK CAPE AND MODEST SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE RISK...AS STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS OK THROUGH THE DAY. FARTHER SE INTO TX...STRONGER SHEAR -- ENHANCED BY A 50 TO 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL JET ON THE SRN SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM -- IS PROGGED...BUT A WARM LEVEL BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT BOTH SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY HOWEVER...MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND THE EWD ADVANCE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD -- AND SOMEWHAT MORE INTENSE -- CONVECTION...SPREADING OUT OF CENTRAL TX INTO THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE. ALONG WITH FAVORABLE VEERING/INCREASING OF THE FLOW FIELD WITH HEIGHT...AMPLE CAPE FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS WOULD SUGGEST A RISK FOR EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. LATER -- DEPENDING UPON ACTUAL DEGREE OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG A DEVELOPING SURFACE COLD FRONT...A LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND COULD EVOLVE OVERNIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. FINALLY -- DEPENDING AGAIN UPON SYSTEM EVOLUTION WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED SEVERE RISK COULD EVOLVE AS FAR E AS THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...AS A LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION SPREAD INTO/ACROSS THIS REGION LATE. AS SLY FLOW ADVECTS GULF MOISTURE NWD...AMPLE DESTABILIZATION MAY ENSUE...SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION -- WITHIN A BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FEATURING AMPLE SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
Posted on: Fri, 14 Mar 2014 17:53:47 +0000
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