Tomorrows elections will not end the political conflict. More likely, Thailand will see more political instability and paralysis. Still, Sundays show of strength has the potential to shift the political momentum. Two numbers will be decisive: First, VOTER TURNOUT will be crucial. A high voter turnout will reaffirm electoral democracy as the fundamental decision making machanism of Thai society, the center court where eventually all political finals must be fought and won. For the government, a high voter turnout will underscore its legitimacy claim to represent the majority of all Thais. For the protesters, a low voter turnout will underscore its claim that the government lost its legitimacy. The second number to watch is the WHISTLE MOB MIDDLE CLASS TURNOUT. After numbers have waned to a mere handful of Southerners over the last days, the mob has lost its ability to dictate the poltical agenda, effectively being reduced to a spoiler of the political process. Devastating pictures of physically harassed voters have delivered a serious blow to the mobs legitimacy and ability to communicate its political agenda. Hence, Sundays showdown will be more fateful for the mob than for the government. If mob leaders fail to mobilize hundreds of thousands of middle class protesters, or solely rely on street violence to blockade the voting process, it effectively ceases to exist as a political force (and may solely drag on under the tutelage of those behind the scenes). The political conflict will then move on to its decisive phase: the showdown between the elite networks.
Posted on: Sat, 01 Feb 2014 08:48:26 +0000
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