Tonights video will be out by about 9:00PM Im just briefing our OCC team first. Some of the key concepts covered in tonights video: (1) A track further south towards the Tropical or Northern Central Coast appears to be more favoured by guidance compared to what yesterdays track was showing. (2) There is still an unusually large error margin in the track forecast after Wednesday. HOWEVER that error margin is decreasing compared to yesterdays video. The key issue Wednesday is the interaction between the forming cyclone and an amplifying upper level trough through the Coral Sea. (3) There is still about 20 - 30% of ensemble guidance that does not landfall this system, so landfall is still not certain but it is becoming probable. (4) Overall the trend over the past 24 hours is to intensify this system to a slightly stronger cyclone as it approaches the coast. Still not to the point where it is a high end system, but its definitely a trend worth monitoring. (5) The strongest winds and heaviest rains will likely be located near to and south of the systems centre. (6) King tides later in the week could make this cyclones storm surge quite dangerous depending on how close to the coast it gets and what time it crosses (IF it crosses). (7) We see increasing cyclone potential off the Pilbara coastline starting this weekend. As I say its important I brief the OCC team first but that will be what the update will cover and should be out at approximately 9:00PM (Nitso)
Posted on: Sun, 26 Jan 2014 09:31:03 +0000
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