Top 10 issues thatll define 2015 By Bayo Adeyinka With 2015 fast approaching and considering the issues that dote the landscape in 2014, it becomes pertinent to project and consider what are likely going to be the major issues that will define 2015. Heres my Top 10 countdown in no particular order: 1. Election 2015 This is unarguably the major issue in 2015. The February 2015 elections present an opportunity for the opposition to unseat the incumbent. For the first time in Nigerian history, we have a formidable opposition. In the countdown to the election, there has been several re-alignments of political interests and very succinct political intrigues are being played out. We may see the electoral map being re-drawn across states and several constituencies all over the nation. However, there are several questions begging for answers- will there be elections in the North East currently bedeviled by the violence of the Boko Haram insurgency? Can the opposition actually unseat the incumbent? Will the South West remain under the grip of the APC or are we about to witness a power shift? With the potential of violence occurring in the wake of the election and considering the 2015 doomsday prophecy of Nigerias disintegration, the success or otherwise of the election will go a long way to determine the continued existence or basis of a united Nigeria. 2. The War Against Boko Haram and the Chibok Girls As the whereabouts of the Chibok Girls remain a mystery, the war against Boko Haram will continue to be prosecuted by the military. With the recovery of several towns and villages hitherto captured by the insurgents, it is expected that the military will pursue an aggressive strategy once the 2015 election is concluded. With the Federal Government turning towards Russia for armaments, it is certain that a new policy is being evolved to counter the activities of the insurgents. But how far can the military go? Will the insurgents take on new territories especially with the recent alarm that ISIS is collaborating with them? What will happen to the Internally Displaced Persons? Will the Chibok Girls ever be found? Now that Ihejirika has sued the Australian negotiator for libel, how far can negotiation with the insurgents go? Can the local sponsors ever be unmasked? 3. The Price of Oil, Devaluation of the Naira and The Impact On The Budget With the recent slump in oil prices and the subsequent impact on the benchmark of our national budget, it is clear that the success or otherwise of the 2015 budget rests solely on how the impact can be mitigated. With the foreign reserves at a low and excess crude savings depleted, it will require astuteness on the part of the managers of the economy to ensure all capital expenditures continue as scheduled while recurrent expenditures are met. But with some states already defaulting in the payment of salaries, it remains to be seen for just how long will states continue to go cap-in-hand to the Centre in order to meet their needs. Will the Federal Government borrow to finance the budget deficit? How soon can the monolithic economy be diversified so as to cushion the impact of the low oil price? Can the Sovereign Wealth Fund come to the rescue? 4. Increase in VAT With the need to shore up revenue projections, it has become imperative for the Federal Government to seek for other ways to make up for declining oil receipts. At the current rate of 5%, the Federal Government generates about N600b from VAT receipts annually. With the Coordinating Minister of the Economy sounding off a proposed increase to 10%, the implementation may be just a matter of months away. The increase has a potential of doubling the VAT receipts to N1.2trillion, a much needed cash injection which will be shared among the three tiers of government. Nigeria has the lowest VAT rate in Africa and is one of the lowest in the world ( Benin Republic-18%, Senegal-20%, South Africa-14%, Cameroun-19.5%, Ghana-17.5%, UK-20%). But can increase in VAT hinder the flow of investments? What impact will it have on inflation? 5. Introduction of Luxury Tax The Federal Government has proposed to introduce luxury tax on private jets, luxury yatchs, luxury cars, business and first class tickets on airlines, champagnes, wines and spirits in addition to Mansion tax on properties in the FCT with value above N300m. It is expected that about N10.5b will be raised in 2015 from this new tax regimen. Are we going to see a reduction in the purchase of these luxury items? How well can the government pursue the implementation of this new tax policy, given that its targeted at the nouveau rich? With 600,000 bottles of champagne consumed annually in Nigeria and with Nigerians spending N41b annually on it, it is not unexpected that the country is the second fastest market for champagne in the world. Will the introduction of this luxury tax cure the addicted patrons of their expensive culinary pleasures and recede the market? 6. The take-off of a new Development Finance Institution (DFI) Described as “a wholesale financial institution that will support our private sector, especially small and medium enterprises (SMEs), to access more affordable financing with longer tenure, this is one institution whose take-off in 2015 can lead to an exponential growth in the SME segment of the economy. With a seed fund of $400m from the African Development Bank (ADB) and another $700m from the World Bank, this new organization may just be the real deal. Read the full article here bayoadeyinka/bayoadeyinka/index.php/entry/top-10-issues-that-ll-define-2015-by-bayo-adeyinka
Posted on: Tue, 30 Dec 2014 22:40:24 +0000
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