Tough call on the period between the 25th-30th. The tropical impact in the western Pacific and also in the Atlantic can impact the pattern. The GFS operational model shows a tropical system heading towards Japan, then shifting west toward China around the 15th. Most often, 6-10 days down the road, we see some warming or ridging into the eastern U.S (22nd-25th). But the European model is showing this same system re-curving toward Japan and out to the northeast, being picked up by eastern Asian trough. That would lead to cooling or a trough in the eastern U.S. during the same time period. In addition, the following system is opposite for both models. The GFS recurves the second system around the 22nd while the European takes the second system toward China. The western Atlantic is still a mystery. The models continue to change around day to day on storms developing near the east coast. That can also change the pattern in the eastern U.S. I would tend to believe that the second storm has a better chance at recurvature then second based on the eastern Asian pattern, but I can not be sure. I will update over the next few days. Winter forecast comes out by early October. I may hint at a few things late September on what we can expect.
Posted on: Wed, 11 Sep 2013 13:57:32 +0000
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