Treasure Hunting for Saves Wednesday, August 20, 2014 Last week, we discussed the lack of obvious candidates for closer turnover. With less than a third of the season remaining, most closer turmoil will result from injuries to incumbents. As such, Ill take some time today to identify each teams eighth inning man with additional comments where merited. Owners in holds leagues probably wont have the option to acquire these players, but a couple a might be available. Owners in saves-only leagues might want to speculate on the better setup men. You make your own luck when it comes to late season closer acquisitions. Editors Note: Rotoworlds partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $40,000 Fantasy Baseball League for Wednesday nights MLB games. Its $25 to join and first prize is $6,000. Starts at 7:10pm ET on Wednesday. Heres the FanDuel Link. Tier 1: Elite (5) Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox The scare of the week came in Colorado, where Chapman left a save opportunity with an “achy” shoulder. He faced four batters and walked all four. All four batters scored, ruining his elite ERA in the process. It doesnt seem as though the Reds consider the issue to be serious. He could appear again any day now, but you may want to hedge with Jonathan Broxton just in case. Broxton has a lovely 1.43 ERA, but it isnt supported by his mediocre peripherals. An ERA estimator called xFIP pegs him at 4.08. Thankfully, the rest of the elite tier was decidedly less exciting. Uehara had a rough week. He appeared three times and allowed a run in his two most recent outings. Last nights run led to a loss for the elite reliever. Junichi Tazawa is next in line. It was a ho-hum week for Kimbrel with three saves. One of those involved two hits and a walk, so it was a bit of a nail bitter. In case you lost track, it looks like Jordan Walden has the eighth inning these days. Greg Holland snagged four saves – three of them in partial innings. He did allow two runs, one earned, during one of the appearances. Wade Davis is the setup man in Kansas City. Jansen picked up two saves while allowing six base runners and one run in 2.1 innings. Im shocked the Dodgers didnt make a move for a reliever at the trade deadline. Brian Wilsons 5.26 ERA and 4.13 FIP are next in line. Ground ball specialist Brandon League (70 percent ground ball rate, 2.47 ERA) is also in the mix. Nobody in the Dodgers pen is particularly desirable. Tier 2: Nearly Elite (4) David Robertson, New York Yankees Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels Robertson took the loss last night after allowing a three run home run to Chris Carter in a tied game. He picked up two no-nonsense saves over the weekend. Dellin Betances is his setup man. This should be an interesting story to watch over the offseason, especially for keeper league owners. Betances has elite closer stuff and Robertsons contract is up. Will the Yankees re-sign Robertson to give them a devasting late game combo or will they lean on the cheaper Betances? Keep in mind, the Yankees will have to pay a 40-50 percent luxury tax on whatever they pay to Robertson. I have to imagine the 29 year old could get upwards of $40 million on the free market. Hes that good. Perkins had an easy three outing, two save week. Hes backed up by Jared Burton and Casey Fien. Both are fine relievers but nothing special for fantasy owners. Doolittles week was even more uneventful. He had two easy, non-save appearances. Steady Luke Gregerson handles the eighth. His 2.21 ERA is his best attribute. Street came back last night to knock down his fourth save of the calendar week. It was his fifth appearance and first after a two run, blown save loss on Sunday. The Angels have an enviable stock of alternatives should Street hit the disabled list. Joe Smith performed well earlier this year, and Jason Grilli also has the pedigree of a reliable option. Kevin Jepsen picked up a save on Monday, but hes definitely behind the other setup men. Tier 3: Rock Steady (6) Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians Steve Cishek, Miami Marlins Fernando Rodney, Seattle Mariners Joaquin Benoit, San Diego Padres Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers Allen exists in the fuzzy territory between Tier 2 and Tier 3. He picked up a win and a save in three outings, so it was another steady week. Bryan Shaw is solid, but he fits better as a middle reliever than a closer. Id look at Carlos Carrasco (currently filling the rotation) as a better alternate closer. Cishek got through the week without any blow ups. Hed been going through some tough times. It was only two appearances, so were not out of the woods yet. Ill be forced to move him down the rankings if he experiences any more trouble. Bryan Morris is another eighth inning guy who really doesnt work as a closer candidate his 6.94 K/9 and 3.32 BB/9 is merely mediocre. Im sure the club loves his 1.81 ERA, but a 3.94 FIP is troubling. Rodney appeared three times and picked up two saves since our last powwow. He was called on to record just one out in his two most recent appearances. If hes called on tonight, it will be his third game in a row. Many fantasy owners targeted Danny Farquhar as somebody who could be promoted to a job. Short of injury, its not happening this year. Farquhar still looks good for future seasons. Benoit is currently day-to-day with shoulder soreness. Its not thought to be serious at this time. Kevin Quackenbush is expected to fill in. He has just enough stuff to perform the job, but hed be ranked in Tier 5 or 6. Dale Thayer has filled in as closer in the past and could also figure into the mix. Britton has really won me over this season by continually improving as he adjusts to life in the bullpen. Hes managed to buff his whiff and strikeout rates throughout the season, which has me confident in his outlook for 2015. Nominally, hes setup by Tommy Hunter. I have trouble believing the club wouldnt use Andrew Miller in the ninth if Britton hit the shelf. Miller could be signed as a closer this offseason. Rodriguez saved two more games this week, but he also allowed his tenth home run of the season. Ive been talking up Jim Henderson, who was on the rehab trail, but now his season is done. He had surgery to clean up his shoulder. Southpaw Will Smith, with his high strikeout and walk rates, is an interesting alternative to Rodriguez. Tier 4: The Mid-Tier (4) Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies Rafael Soriano, Washington Nationals Melancon blew a save in his lone outing of the week. Tony Watson is an able-bodied setup who could fill Melancons shoes in an emergency. He strikes out more than a batter per inning while limiting walks to about 2.00 BB/9. McGee took a loss, earned a save, and also had a no decision, two inning outing. The latter occurred last night, so look to Brad Boxberger or Grant Balfour for tonights save. The Rays typically go to committee when a closer fails, but Boxberger should be a strong front runner. His elite 14.17 K/9 makes him the kind of strikeout artist who is popular with the game on the line. I think McGee will handle the job for the remainder of 2014, with Boxberger leaching the occasional save. Their roles may reverse for 2015. The prophesied Papelbon meltdown hasnt materialized, which is good for the Phillies. Theyre supposedly keen to open the ninth inning for Ken Giles, who has looked decided Kimbrel-ish through his first 28.1 innings. The elite strikeout rate could well be maintained, but I have severe doubts hell maintain a walk rate of 1.91 BB/9. He allowed more than twice the number of free passes in the minors, including this season. That said, hes a Tier 2 guy with Tier 1 upside if he gets the job. Its been awhile since the Phillies saw a relief prospect flourish in this way. It was a bad week for Sorianos hold on the closer job. In four appearances over five days, Soriano recorded three saves and a blown save. The 3.1 innings included eight hits, one walk, a home run, and five runs. He did not strike out any batters. Tyler Clippard is inching towards a shot at the ninth inning. The issue with Clippard is his fly ball tendency can add up to more home runs than most teams want from their closer. Drew Storen is still around, but hes not nearly the man he used to be. Hes still a solid middle reliever. Tier 5: Questions (6) Addison Reed, Arizona Diamondbacks Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays Chad Qualls, Houston Astros Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants Rosenthal is running into trouble. He appeared four times and allowed runs in his three most recent outings. He walked a combined six batters too. Pat Neshek is a must own for anybody looking for saves. I have my reservations about Neshek as a closer – particularly his history of platoon splits (career 5.00 FIP versus left-handed hitters). However, hes clearly performing better than anyone else in that bullpen. Lets keep an eye on this. Not much happened for Janssen this last week – a save and another clean, non-save inning. Aaron Loup is the setup man, although hes not a desirable closer candidate. Brett Cecil would look better if not for his high walk rate. Cecil could still factor in against tough lefties late in the game. He has a big reverse platoon split this season, but Ill chalk that up to sample size for now. Reed was steady with two saves in three uneventful innings. Brad Ziegler is the backup. He has a lot in common with Neshek in that his career platoon splits dont figure to work out of the ninth inning. At least not long term. Rondon faced one batter more than the minimum while recording three saves. Neil Ramirez and Kyuji Fujikawa make for interesting closer alternatives should Rondon scuffle badly or hit the disabled list. Qualls is back to performing steadily. After hitting a rough patch in late July, hes settled in with just two hits over his last week. Josh Fields was starting to look like a closer, but hes botched several recent outings. Lefty Tony Sipp is probably next in line. His 10.66 K/9 and 2.27 BB/9 should work as a short term fill in. The club might view Mike Foltynewicz as a long term candidate, but he has some growing to do. Nervous Casilla owners might not like that Sergio Romo picked up a save last Saturday – one day after Casilla took his third loss of the season. Casilla came back to record the save on Sunday, so it looks like he was just getting some rest. Hes a gutsy reliever, but he doesnt have much beyond an excellent ground ball rate. I thought Jeremy Affeldt was next in line, but maybe Romo is the guy. Tier 6: Roller Coasters (5) LaTroy Hawkins, Colorado Rockies Jenrry Mejia, New York Mets Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers Joe Nathan, Detroit Tigers Jacob Petricka, Chicago White Sox Hawkins is still sponging the occasional save in Colorado. Adam Ottovino has leapfrogged Rex Brothers for the setup job due to the latters ridiculous walk rate. Ottovino profiles better as a middle reliever. So does Hawkins for that matter. Mejia is pitching through hernia and calf issues, and its shown in his results. He was also recently used in four of five days, which seems like an oversight with the Mets playing for third place. Its probably a matter of time before they shut Mejia down for the season. As such, Jeurys Familia is a must own, even though his 2.02 ERA is not remotely supported by his peripherals (3.79 xFIP). Technically, Feliz did not blow the save yesterday. He just happened to be the guy who was pitching when Giancarlo Stanton ended the game. I think hes a middle reliever, but it doesnt hurt the Rangers to try to help his confidence. Neal Cotts has been solid this season, as has Shawn Tolleson. Neither makes for an exciting closer candidate, although Id be more eager to own them than Feliz. Nathan saved two games this week, but he allowed a run in each of them. He also appeared in a non-save situation where he walked two batters. Detroit needs to get themselves in order for the playoffs. I cant imagine the club is comfortable handing high pressure leads to Nathan. Joba Chamberlain is taking eighth inning reps, but Im speculating on the superior Al Alburquerque. Id still take a large number of setup men ahead of Petricka. Hes backed up by Zach Putnam and Matt Lindstrom, neither of whom are useful. ***************************** Injured Jesse Crain (calf, biceps), Houston Astros Bobby Parnell (elbow), New York Mets Jim Henderson (shoulder), Milwaukee Brewers Joakim Soria (oblique), Detroit Tigers Henderson is done for the season after it was determined that shoulder surgery was necessary. Soria is said to be progressing. The Tigers need him. The Deposed Jim Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers Jose Veras, Chicago Cubs Josh Fields, Houston Astros John Axford, Cleveland Indians Jim Johnson, Oakland Athletics Jason Grilli, Anaheim Angels Ernesto Frieri, Pittsburgh Pirates Sergio Romo, San Francisco Giants Grant Balfour, Tampa Bay Rays Ronald Belisario, Chicago White Sox Joe Smith, Los Angeles Angels Joakim Soria, Detroit Tigers Zach Putnam, Chicago White Sox ***************************** The Steals Department Well look at some pure steals guys today. If you need swipes badly, youre going to have to sacrifice other categories to get them. Jarrod Dyson is the poster child of this group. He can hit for a bit of average when he plays, but mostly he works as a pinch runner/defensive replacement. His 27 steals on the season top most of my waiver wires. Jordan Schafer should find more playing time in Minnesota. Hell probably be used similarly to Dyson. I imagine Aaron Hicks will be called up in September, which could eat away those few Schafer starts. The Athletics are currently using Sam Fuld as a platoon guy against right-handed pitchers. When Craig Gentry returns in the near future, he could form a very potent, undersized platoon with Fuld. Ender Inciarte is the Diamondbacks current center fielder. He occasionally bats near the top of the lineup, and hes a solid base runner. Hes been a bit conservative this season, which is a shame for a one category producer.
Posted on: Wed, 20 Aug 2014 18:25:26 +0000
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