Tropical Depression 05W (Intl. JMA) Possible Bagyong Domeng/Likely Tropical Storm Pei Pah [Update #2 04/04/14 17:00 PHT] ---------------------------------------------- Tropical Depression 05W continues to very slowly develop today and remains a fairly disorganized tropical low with an exposed low level circulation and much of its convection displaced west of the storms center. Over the next 24-48hrs though the storm is expected to slowly organize and become a tropical storm as it tracks north west gaining latitude and pushing towards Palau and Yap. As of Friday morning there is fair confidence Palau will be impacted by at least a Tropical Storm by Monday bringing heavy rain and sustained winds over 100kph. This would be enough to cause damage on the island but nothing as extreme as what was seen during Typhoon Bopha in 2012 that brought a large storm surge to the northern extent of the country. Beyond that the forecast certainty becomes very low. Model guidance is split between a recurvature scenario or a impact on Mindanao and Visayas. And given the length of the forecast up to a week the atmosphere dynamics could change altering the storms track dramatically. At this time I still think an indirect impact at the very least including rain from out bands of the storm and high waves is very likely by Tuesday and Wednesday with a direct landfall still possible. Based on Climatology a storm this far south would track west south of the high pressure ridge and come on shore in the eastern Philippines. But we cant ignore model guidance either. As stated in the video update above over the weekend a clearer and more crisp picture of what will happen by mid-week will be painted in regards to this storm. For now prepare and be ready. One thing I can say with confidence and is something people keep on asking. NO this will not be anywhere near the intensity of Yolanda / Haiyan. Finally, Please o please, if you see anyone on Social Media (and if you are in the Philippines you know what we are discussing) posting signal force 3 will occur in the Philippines up to 6 days out before landfall! Ignore it and remember to get your information for a official or qualified source. ---------------------------------------------- As Always Stay Safe out there - Meteorologist Robert Speta Western Pacific Weather Founder ---------------------------------------------- Be sure to like the WesternPacificWeather Facebook for constant updates on Weather for both Philippines and the rest of Southeast Asia https://facebook/Westpacwx/
Posted on: Fri, 04 Apr 2014 08:48:40 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015