Tropical SATELLITE ANALYSIS OF Gulf Of Mexico - Caribbean Sea image shows at 1830 Z JUN 24 2014 the following: .......TROPICAL WAVES.......... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 31W FROM 06N TO 15N IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CONFINED TO THE NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 25W FROM 06N TO 15N IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CONFINED TO THE NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 05N60W TO 17N54W IS MOVING WESTWARD CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE WAS ADJUSTED WESTWARD ON THE ANALYSIS BASED ON EASTERLY WAVE DIAGNOSTICS... LOW CLOUD MOTIONS AND A 1402 UTC ASCAT PASS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 94W/95W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS DISSIPATED OVER WATER WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE MAY BE FRACTURING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER MEXICO MOVING MORE TO THE NORTH. THE BULK OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY WED. ........THE GULF OF MEXICO........... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS AND SUBTROPICAL AREAS WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO A BASE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. A LEADING SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ALABAMA SE TO NEAR 26N85W WAS LIFTING TO THE NE. AN EXTENSION OF AN EAST PACIFIC RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE COVERED THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WAS DIFFLUENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN GULF...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OWING TO A STABLE AIR MASS AND RELATIVELY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE IS ALONG 29N FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 95W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE MAY BE FRACTURING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER MEXICO MOVING MORE TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES 60-90 NM INLAND OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEAS EXCEPT THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE BASIN WHERE A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS NOTED. THE ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 12N78W. THE FLOW WAS STRONGLY DIFFLUENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WHERE A COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND OVERALL INSTABILITY WAS RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5N77W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR BLUEFIELDS. AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE WAS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THAT PART OF THE BASIN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED A MORE NORMAL TRADE WIND REGIME WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W...AND 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. AN EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N75W IN COLOMBIA AND ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... PATCHES OF BROKEN CUMULUS AND TOWERING CUMULUS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR OF HISPANIOLA AS THE DIURNAL PEAK HEATING IS IN FULL SWING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT OVER OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
Posted on: Tue, 24 Jun 2014 19:30:00 +0000
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