Tropical Storm Jangmi Last Updated 12/29/2014, 2:00:00 PM (China Standard Time) Location 9.2N 234.8E Movement WNW at 10 mph Wind 65KPH 6 hour summary and analysis. 1. Tropical storm 23w (jangmi), located approximately 407 nm southeast of Manila, Philippines, has tracked west-northwestward at 09 knots over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a waning of the deep convection as the system tracked across northern mindanao despite remaining tightly wrapped with well-defined banding wrapping into the low- level circulation center (LLCC). A 290446z trmm microwave pass revealed a tightly wrapped structure despite a slight decrease in deep convection. The initial position is based on the msi loop and the microwave pass with good confidence. The initial intensity has been slightly lowered to 35 knots, based on the weakening of the convection and is in line with Dvorak intensity estimates. Upper- level analysis indicates a favorable environment with good poleward outflow and low (10 to 15 knots) vertical wind shear (vws). Ts 23w is tracking along the southwest periphery of the low to mid-level subtropical ridge (str). 3. Forecast reasoning. A. No change to the forecast philosophy since the previous prognostic reasoning message. B. Ts 23w is forecast to track west-northwestward to westward through tau 24 as it moves toward a break in the str. After tau 36, the system is expected to transition to the steering influence of another str anchored north of Southeast Asia and the South China Sea. As this str assumes steering, the system is expected to track west-southwestward through tau 72. Ts 23w is forecast to struggle to intensify as it tracks over the southern Philippines but is expected to re-intensify as it emerges over the sulu sea. C. In the extended Taus, ts 23w is forecast to continue to track west-southwestward and should intensify slightly to a peak intensity of 45 knots by tau 72. Further intensification will be limited due to increasing interaction with a strong northeasterly surge event, which will advect cooler, more stable air into the system inducing a weakening trend.
Posted on: Mon, 29 Dec 2014 11:07:42 +0000
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