Tuesday, 23 December, 2014 Forecasts for Ireland The forecast situation remains about the same as yesterday. Thus the forecast below will read about the same as yesterday and if you remember that one, I would skim through and then just go to the end and read the further outlook. There are some new thoughts there perhaps. TODAY ... Still very mild but turning slightly cooler and fresher in two or three minor steps over the rest of the day. Temperatures will tend to stay about where they are now (10-11 C south, 8-9 C north) to mid-day then slide down about three or four degrees by evening. Winds will be westerly at about 50 to 70 km/hr and there will be a band of moderate rain that will continue south and east giving 5-15 mm rainfalls, followed by more scattered and sporadic showers once the cloud cover breaks somewhat. TONIGHT ... Turning rather cold except perhaps near the south coast, lows will range from 2-4 C inland to 4-7 C south coast. Showers will ease and some places will have a largely dry night. CHRISTMAS EVE (24th) ... A bright and bracing sort of day with towering cumulus cloud capable of unleashing brief showers of rain or hail, and maybe a touch of snow on higher summits. Moderate westerly winds 50-70 km/hr, highs about 5 or 6 C for most, 8 C south coast. The overnight hours that people actually call Christmas Eve will be dry with clear patches developing, and those might eventually generate some shallow fog or freezing fog. Roads could become rather slippery by midnight and thereafter. Lows will reach about -2 C inland, +2 around most coasts. CHRISTMAS DAY will start out with filtered sunshine through increasing higher cloud, except where any fog persists. There will probably be a thick hoar frost in shady spots that could last all day despite highs near 5 C. One or two mixed wintry showers will probably drift inland around Donegal and Mayo and a few lucky areas could get a dusting of fresh snow during the day, almost all areas further east and south will remain dry except for the hoar frost. The evening will remain cloudy in the west but clear patches will develop again in Leinster and east Ulster where it could become as cold as -4 C before warming up again. ST STEPHENs DAY (26th) will start cloudy and cold, winds will slowly pick up from the south, and a band of mixed sleety precipitation will spread in (mostly rain near sea level), all changing to moderate rain by evening and overnight into early morning of 27th. Lows -2 but rising then highs 6-8 C except possibly about 3-4 C inland north. SATURDAY (27th) will be the day to watch, most guidance suggests a mild and windy start with temperatures near 7 or 8 C for a few hours, then strong westerly winds shifting rapidly into the north, falling temperatures to about 2 or 3 C and pelting showers of hail or sleet that will likely turn readily to snow over higher elevations than 150m above sea level. You might be quite likely to encounter snow if you drive any distance and especially if you venture into hilly areas. Winds will be at least 50-90 km/hr and could reach 110 km/hr in gusts over exposed locations, if the storm deepens close enough to Ireland, as 130 km/hr seems possible in eastern Scotland and northeast England. SUNDAY (28th) seems likely to remain windy and very cold with passing showers of hail, sleet and snow. There is some chance it wont be quite cold enough for much mixing but also some possibility of near-blizzard conditions at times in the north and even for a brief interval in Leinster. Places such as Cork and Waterford might only see brief passing showers leaving little or no accumulation. Further north there could be 1-3 cms of snow here and there, and 3-5 cms in more exposed parts of Ulster and north Connacht. Winds might stay northwest to north all day or could possibly turn more to the northeast if low pressure dives south into France as shown on some guidance. Thats when some interesting sea effect streamer action could be added to the mix around Dublin, but only if the winds make that turn. More likely streamers would be found coming off the North Atlantic around Donegal Bay. Expect morning lows of about -4 C or lower in some places, and afternoon highs of 2-4 C feeling more like -5 C. MONDAY will likely remain quite cold but less stormy, with isolated mixed wintry showers, lows near -6 C and highs near 3 to 5 C. THE FURTHER OUTLOOK seems to favour a period of chilly but settled weather that might feature rather severe frosts especially if any snow cover builds up over the weekend. Somewhat milder air will likely feed in from the south near the Atlantic coasts. Highs to about New Years Day would be in the range 4 to 7 for most and 7 to 9 in the far west. Lows in that period could be as low as -5 in places although probably closer to -1 C in larger towns and coastal areas. A few milder days are likely, if the wind doesnt remain in an easterly or northerly direction, leading to mixed wintry precipitation and possibly some storm force winds too, around 4-6 January. If as some guidance suggests an easterly sets in around then, heavy snow would become possible because there is bound to be some energy hitting whatever regime takes control, so in an easterly flow that could be enhanced troughs moving west. The overall situation for Britain is about the same as all of the above with the exception of a potential for stronger and even locally severe wind gusts on the weekend after Christmas. The London area is probably less likely than most to see any mixing of precipitation, northern England and Scotland have high odds of seeing snow. It all seems to be a day or two later than you might want for any white Christmas dreams or bets. See yesterdays discussion for North America, things are becoming a lot more active in eastern regions overnight. My local weather on Monday was foggy to start, then partly to mostly cloudy with brief glimpses of blue sky, with scattered showers by afternoon, highs near 8 C. We could have a bit of snow here by Christmas Eve, not much but a coating of 1-2 cms possibly. -- Peter for IWO ^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^V^
Posted on: Tue, 23 Dec 2014 08:11:59 +0000
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