Tuesday headache The morning brings us an old one, and the official start of a new one out in the WPAC as FUNG-WONG continues a tour of China, and 98W looks to be the next big thing... Tropical storm FUNG-WONG has slowed considerably as it skirts the coast of mainland China. JTWCs latest upate at 22/2100 places the center of FUNG-WONG near 29.9N, 122.6E, or about 428 nm (793 km) WSW of Sasebo , Japan. FUNG-WONG has been moving slowly to the NNE at 7 kts (13 kph) with estimated maximum winds of 40 kts and gusts to 50 kts (74 kph/90 kph). All things considered, the Chinese are getting it easy, as the storms position to the continent is robbing it of a lot of moisture from the west and southwest quadrants, placing the Chinese coast on, essentially, the clean side of this system. The official forecast track of FUNG-WONG shows a continual crawl to the N, and then a turn to the NE, while the system continues to weaken due to cooler SSTs and formidable wind shear. 98W is the new kid in town, having consolidated a bit better overnight. The JTWC issued a TCFA (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) on this system at 22/1900, placing the center near 12.4N, 148.1E, or about 200 nm (370 km) ESE of Guam. The system has tracked NNW at 10 kts (18 kph) while packing maximum estimated winds of 18 kts (33 kph) and a central barometric pressure of 1004 mb (29.65 in.). Outflow is good with this system, thanks to an upper-level low to the WNW, but wind shear in the 10-20 kt range could hinder any rapid development of this system. Regardless, the storm is given a HIGH chance of developing into a significant tropical cyclone within 24 hours, and I would estimate this system will be designated a depression before our heads touch our pillows later tonight. Happy hunting! Comments are always welcome!
Posted on: Mon, 22 Sep 2014 23:06:15 +0000
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