Turkish politics Lonely command The prime minister rules the roost, despite setbacks at home and abroad. Lack of serious opposition helps Aug 24th 2013 | ANKARA |From the print edition .. WHEN Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s prime minister, returned to power in 2011 for his third successive term he triumphantly declared that the next five years would mark an era of “mastery” for his Islam-tinged Justice and Development (AK) party. His dreams included elevating himself to the presidency when it comes up next year and getting the AK-dominated parliament to endow it with executive powers. AK would run Turkey until 2023, the centenary of Ataturk’s republic. His opponents gloomily conceded that Mr Erdogan would have his way. At least they did until June, when mass protests erupted across the country in an unprecedented show of defiance against a decade of increasingly illiberal AK rule. Popular backing for the party slipped below 50%. Mr Erdogan looked vulnerable and acted scared, even banning political slogans at football matches. In this section Lonely command Business class Party season Trading insults Grim to be gay Overflow Gangsterland Reprints Related topics Turkey Politics Recep Tayyip Erdogan Government and politics World politics The protests began over plans to rip out a clutch of trees in Istanbul’s main Taksim Square. Police brutality helped them spread: five protesters, most of them from the Alevi minority, died. Mr Erdogan’s reputation, already damaged by Turkey’s unhappy habit of jailing journalists (more than any other country), frayed further. His ranting that the “international interest-rate lobby” (Jews) and their Western media stooges (including this newspaper) had orchestrated the protests supported claims that, surrounded by sycophants, he was no longer fit to govern. This week Mr Erdogan thunderously blamed Israel for the coup in Egypt which ousted his biggest Middle Eastern ally and ideological soulmate, Muhammad Morsi, earning stiff criticism from America. Other dents in Mr Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman pretensions come from Syria, where Turkey has vainly sought to topple Bashar Assad. Instead, jihadist groups are recruiting locals to their cause. Turkish officials acknowledge that Jabhat al-Nusra, labelled “terrorists” by America, may have been behind car-bombs in the border town of Reyhanli that killed 53 people in May. Coming just before Mr Erdogan’s talks with Barack Obama in Washington, the attack may have been intended to warn Turkey against doing America’s bidding and taking on the jihadists. Wounded al Nusra fighters “no longer receive VIP treatment”, says Sefik Cirkin, a member of parliament for the opposition Nationalists, who is from Reyhanli. Yet, Syrian Kurds, who are fighting the jihadists for control over mainly Kurdish areas in northern Syria, insist that Turkey is egging them on. This is in turn undermining Turkey’s efforts to make peace with its own Kurds. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a rebel group which has been fighting for self-rule inside Turkey since 1984, has set an October deadline for the government to enact reforms to satisfy the Kurds’ demands for more rights. If not, the rebels warn that a ceasefire that has held since April may be ended. Mr Erdogan is also at odds with Fethullah Gulen, Turkey’s most influential Muslim cleric. He commands a global empire of media outlets from his self-imposed exile in rural Pennsylvania; his followers are said to have infiltrated the judiciary and the police in large numbers. The Gulenaffiliated Journalists and Writers’ Foundation has issued an 11-point manifesto rebutting claims of plots against Mr Erdogan. Ankara is awash with rumours that Mr Gulen will instruct his flock, which some reckon accounts for as much as 5% of the electorate, to vote against AK in municipal elections in March. These elections are now billed as a referendum on Mr Erdogan and his party. Might AK even lose its great prize of Istanbul, where he first made his mark as mayor in the mid-1990s by bringing water to the once-arid city of 14m? Probably not. The latest polls suggest that AK again commands about 50% of the vote. Mr Erdogan’s conspiracy theories may have discredited him abroad, but they have galvanised AK’s pious base. He cites the coup in Egypt as proof of his allegations. A faltering economy could yet damage Mr Erdogan. A large part of AK’s appeal has come from a decade of economic success. Yet the years of easy growth are over, and Mr Erdogan’s government is shying away from the reforms needed to rekindle it. Moreover, like all emerging markets Turkey faces waning investor appetite. The current-account deficit, now over 6% of GDP, and excessive reliance on domestic demand make Turkey vulnerable: the central bank has just raised interest rates. Even so Ahmet Akarli of Goldman Sachs sees no signs that the Turkish sell-off is worse than others. “Continued growth potential, a demographic premium and a skilled labour force” mean Mr Erdogan could yet meet his goal of joining the world’s top ten economies, he says. A reform package that offers the Kurds just enough to keep the peace process running is expected next week. Turkish officials say it includes provisions for the reopening of the Greek Orthodox seminary on the island of Halki and state subsidies for Alevi houses of worship. These are likely to give long-stalled membership negotiations with the European Union a sorely needed boost. Mr Erdogan’s greatest boon is the lack of a credible alternative. The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) continues to be bogged down by squabbles between the Kemalist old guard and reformers led by its chairman, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. “The protests gave the CHP a big opportunity to net undecided voters but it was missed,” says a disgruntled CHP lawmaker. Mr Erdogan could yet strike a deal with Mr Gulen. And he may come to terms with his greatest potential rival, the sitting president, Abdullah Gul, who could (having rejoined it) take over the party if Mr Erdogan became president. But the era of “mastery” seems gone for good.
Posted on: Sun, 25 Aug 2013 07:46:53 +0000
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