Two years to the ballot: How prepared is the Opposition? By SOLOMON ARINAITWE With the NRM enjoying a connection with the electorate via the Local Councils which has recently been enhanced by a plan to co-opt the local governments into the ruling party’s machinery, Opposition parties find themselves restricted to selling their message to a comparatively narrower audience in the urban areas. With the 2016 polls less than two years away, Opposition political parties appear to be blowing hot and cold – unsettled on which strategy to employ, passing the baton to the incumbent President Museveni who seems to have taken the initiative by launching early campaign jaunts in the countryside. In 2014, the major activity within the Opposition has been the countrywide working tours, ostensibly to drum up support for a raft of electoral reforms they insist are a prerequisite if the 2016 elections are to be free and fair. There are also still making baby steps towards on-and-off plan for a coalition. The by-election in Luweero District where they coalesced around the Democratic Party (DP) candidate Brenda Nabukenya to secure victory was an example of how well things could turn out if they really put their minds to it. Mr Museveni has, however, been in overdrive; gallivanting in the countryside; launching power dams, opening markets, attending weddings and other parties, doling out cash to all manner of groups and making grand statements -- all hallmarks of his habitual campaign tactics in the past. DP secretary general Mathias Nsubuga, one of the architects of the Opposition strategy, admits that they are behind Mr Museveni. “By this time, we should have had electoral reforms ready because nominations begin next year. But they have not even been tabled in Parliament and yet President Museveni is already campaigning in the countryside,” Mr Nsubuga warns. In its bid to set the agenda, the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) very early in February came up with a controversial resolution endorsing Mr Museveni as their sole candidate in the 2016 elections. That matter is not yet fully resolved in light of the situation secretary general Amama Mbabazi and his suspected designs are on the high office. All the major Opposition parties, however, are yet to decide on whether they will participate in the polls, who they will front or whether to front a joint candidate. In the meantime, the NRM resolution on a sole candidate by its parliamentary caucus is facing opposition by some senior members who insist the decision has to be made by party organs. With the NRM caught up in a power play, queries remain over whether the Opposition can exploit the emerging schism in the party to give whoever will be its candidate a run for his or her money in 2016. Three-time presidential contestant and former Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) leader, Dr Kizza Besigye, argues that though the fortunes of the ruling party have taken a dip, Opposition parties are not faring any better because of a constraining political environment. “Nothing has happened to improve their [NRM] fortunes. If anything, the political environment has been worsening for the regime on account of rising unemployment, economic hardships met by everybody and the near total collapse of [social services]. There is nothing dramatic that has improved the fortunes of NRM,” Dr Besigye says. Political environment But the Opposition, Dr Besigye states, has also been dealt a blow by a political environment which hampers attempts to mobilise grassroots or any support and funds with repressive laws like the Public Order Management Act (POMA) and a system that cannot ensure an impartial electoral process. “With that kind of environment, no amount of preparation by the Opposition parties can translate into victory despite the overwhelming discontent with the regime. There is no way you can have credible elections [in this environment],”Dr Besigye argues. The POMA, controversially passed by Parliament last year, imposed stringent restrictions on gatherings, crippling the ability of the Opposition to organise principally in their urban strongholds.
Posted on: Sun, 19 Oct 2014 17:12:05 +0000