UDU contribution to the London conference, November 12, 2011 Chairperson Fellow Ugandans Friends and well-wishers Ladies and gentlemen Let me begin by thanking Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) for organizing this important conference and for inviting and giving United Democratic Ugandans (UDU) an opportunity to present its views. The timing could not have been better and the choice of topic more appropriate. Uganda is indeed at cross-roads. We therefore need to think together very carefully, rationally, pragmatically and patriotically within a long term context before choosing which turn to take. If we take a wrong turn we shall go down a steep cliff and pay dearly during present and future generations. Uganda has been described as a failed state under a military dictatorship. The NRM leadership has scored poorly in all areas of human activity – be it political, democratic, economic, social, institutional, infrastructural, cultural, managerial or ecological. Wherever you turn, you see or sense signs of failure. For example, privatization of public enterprises was undertaken to raise government revenue for productive investment and improve efficiency and effectiveness so that privatized enterprises compete favorably in global markets, create jobs and drive the economy. Privatization of electricity was to improve the service to the public. The disappointing privatization outcomes are there for all to see. In areas such as HIV infection, economic growth and inflation control where success had been recorded, Uganda is moving backwards. Do we have enough evidence to justify NRM total failure? Here are some examples to set the stage for the introduction of the National Recovery Plan (NRP) as an alternative development model. Contrary to expectations, economic growth has failed to reach the minimum of 8 to 10 percent per annum required to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015. The benefits of economic growth have not trickled down to all classes and regions of Uganda. Instead 20 percent in the highest income bracket have become richer whereas 20 percent in the lowest income category have become poorer since NRM came to power in 1986. At the height of economic growth in the mid-1990s when a growth rate of 10 percent was realized, two-thirds of Ugandans remained trapped in absolute poverty, signaling skewed income distribution in favor of those already rich. Today in 2011 over 50 percent of Ugandans live on less than $1.25 a day. Accordingly Uganda’s overall standard of living is nowhere near the level attained in the 1960s as recorded by the World Bank, among others. The undeniable reality is that Uganda has experienced a north/south and rural/urban economic divide and jobless economic growth because of faulty policies – that disproportionately favored the nation’s capital of Kampala where some 70 percent of Uganda’s Gross National Income (GNI) is generated – and/or poor implementation of programs as in the modernization of agriculture. Overall, the service sector has been disproportionately favored over agriculture and rural development as well as the manufacturing sector which mostly assembles imported parts without creating badly needed value addition, jobs and forward and backward linkages in Uganda’s economy. In the vital area of human capital formation NRM has failed the test through food and nutrition insecurity and the near collapse of the healthcare system witness the re-emergence of diseases and lowest life expectancy in East Africa. Education has suffered from high dropout rates and poor quality as well as pursuit of academic qualifications at the expense of skills appropriate in the 21st century knowledge-based labor market. Performance has also been unsatisfactory in the housing sector. Over 60 percent of urban population reside in slums with appalling sanitary conditions. Environmental degradation is manifested in frequent and severe floods and droughts, shrinking water bodies, drying rivers and spring wells and falling water tables, air and water pollution and declining agricultural productivity because of rapid loss of soil fertility. Frequent floods in Kampala represent poor urban planning including building in spaces previously reserved as water channels and clearing vegetation on hill slopes to provide space for the construction industry. Draining wetlands and clearing other vegetative cover like the miombo woodland for ranches has led to local climate change as in Kabale that attracted mosquitoes and the spread of deadly malaria in populations that did not have immunity. By and large, the deteriorating ecological conditions are man-made and cannot be blamed entirely on the “Acts of God”. The area of governance has been hit badly by rampant corruption, sectarianism and mismanagement, poor transparency, low popular participation and insufficient accountability. Military buildup for so-called national security has been disproportionately favored over human security in terms of freedom from fear, freedom from want and freedom to live in dignity and happiness. NRM’s decision to divide the country into very many districts in the name of decentralization has been unfortunate. Apart from being divisive, the tiny districts are economically unviable relying on insufficient central government handouts with stiff conditions. The East African cooperation has not delivered much. Since independence in 1962 Uganda has constantly registered trade deficits and suffered unfair industrial and skills competition. Free mobility of humans and animals has already disadvantaged Uganda in many ways including land ownership and will continue to do so if mobility remains unchecked. For the sake of comparison it would be interesting to know how many Ugandans have crossed the border with their herds to settle in other East African Community countries. Regional cooperation is supposed to confer equitable net benefits to all inhabitants. In the present circumstances, the East African political federation is unlikely to make matters better for Uganda. A common passport is meaningless for poor people who cannot use it because they cannot afford a bus ticket and hotel accommodation expenses. Similarly, a large population without purchasing power does not constitute a sufficient condition for economies of scale to take place. We should understand clearly what caused past failures in integration and federation. If the underlying conditions in the political and economic areas still persist they should be removed first. We should also draw lessons from experiences of other regions such as EU and NAFTA. Meanwhile focus should be paid to integrative features like infrastructure and institutions that will facilitate integration and possibly federation or confederation with the roles of nation states clearly defined and flexible to accommodate future developments. Civic education will be necessary so that Ugandans take informed decisions. The inflexible implementation of structural adjustment program (SAP) of the ‘shock therapy’ version that required actions “taken now, implemented quickly and simultaneously” to take the would-be opponents by surprise, allowing them no room to organize and dissent is largely responsible for many of the failures under the NRM regime. The presence of strong security forces and readiness to use them intimidated opposition and silenced dissent. Demonstrations were brutally suppressed and human rights and fundamental freedoms violated. In a democratic country structural adjustment with its adverse outcomes would not have survived as long as it did under the NRM government. Not least, Uganda’s economy has been driven by excessive invisible hand of market forces and laissez-faire capitalism, with limited state participation and no regulation such as in food exports when Ugandans are starving to death. Government was and still is largely regarded as the problem and not the solution to Uganda’s daunting challenges. So what are the solutions? The National Recovery Plan (NRP) prepared and widely distributed by UDU provides an alternative model to the failed policies of NRM. NRP is available at udugandans.org. The NRP was prepared after a careful analysis of what has happened in Uganda since 1987 and the results are captured in the introduction. Based on that assessment NRP has given pride of place to agricultural, industrial and technological revolutions; human capital formation; balanced growth between urban and rural areas; economic growth with equity; infrastructural and sustainable development, liberal democracy and regional economic cooperation and international relations that serve Uganda interests. Apart from a few countries that do not have agricultural land, no country has developed without an agricultural revolution. Emerging economies like Brazil, China, India and South Korea have developed or are developing a strong agricultural base. Similarly no country has developed without an industrial revolution. Under NRM these two sectors have been neglected in favor of capital-intensive service sector. Therefore, it is not surprising that Uganda has had jobless economic growth. Under the NRP agricultural and industrial development will be given a high priority with emphasis on small holder farmers, micro, small and medium-scale enterprises that create jobs and contribute substantially to economic growth. Contrary to popular belief, small scale farmers when facilitated are more productive, more efficient and more environmentally and socially friendly than large scale farmers. Agricultural and industrial revolutions will be supported by a well developed and maintained infrastructure such as roads and railways and telecommunications etc. Affordable sources of energy will be provided to empower Ugandans to transform agriculture from semi-subsistence to commercial and industrial status beginning with agro-processing while at the same time meeting adequate and balanced household food requirements and selling only surplus in domestic and external markets. Food security is a human right which must be strictly observed in Uganda. It is widely recognized that sick, hungry, illiterate and/or jobless people as Ugandans are can’t be productive. NRP has therefore made provisions for addressing all these challenges through more resource allocation to health with a focus on primary healthcare, food and nutrition security including school lunches that improve attendance and performance especially of girls, education system that is both relevant and flexible to meet 21st century labor market requirements. Birth control as part of human development will be promoted within the overall context of educating girls and empowering women to manage their reproductive behavior in terms of determining the number of children they want, when to have them and how to space them with voluntary access to contraception. No coercion will be applied. Affordable shelter especially in urban areas will also receive priority attention. NRP calls for higher economic growth to the tune of eight to ten percent per annum required as a minimum to meet the Millennium Development Goals by 2015 and beyond including reducing poverty and hunger drastically. The high economic growth will be combined with equity in order to lift the general welfare of all Ugandans. Regional and local characteristics and endowments will be taken into account to avoid a one-size-fits-all solution. Communities will be offered opportunities to design, implement, monitor and evaluate their development programs with external assistance upon request. Democratic governance calls for full transparency, popular participation and accountability. And liberal democracy will be anchored not only on free and fair elections but also – and perhaps more importantly – on strict observance of human rights and fundamental freedoms. Liberty, justice, dignity and happiness will be the cornerstones of the new agenda in this area. NRP recognizes that democratic governance and liberal democracy cannot be realized in the absence of dedicated, patriotic, trusted and visionary leadership that is servant of the people in whom sovereignty resides. Thus, Uganda will need leadership based on meritocracy, proven record of public or community service, respectable character, knowledge and experience of Uganda’s political economy challenges. Apart from corruption and sectarianism, Uganda’s economic mismanagement of public affairs has been caused by many NRM cadres occupying senior positions for which they are not qualified, much less experienced. Some Ugandans have ended up heading ministries they are not qualified for! Look at the current cabinet and you will get a better sense of what is being referred to. Lack of knowledge and experience of many Ugandans in key positions and therefore of confidence was evident during privatization and barter trade negotiations. Furthermore, Uganda does not perform well in international conferences because many representatives do not have the required knowledge, experience and negotiating skills. Under the East African community negotiations, Uganda should press for open ended and incremental arrangements beginning with economic integration and ending up with political federation. The current fast track negotiations for a political federation are like building a house starting with the roof. Chances are that that house will never get completed or when it does won’t last long. East Africa must be built from the foundation up, taking breaks for reflection when the going gets hard. The NRP has called for a model of public and private partnership with each partner using its strategic comparative advantage in a mutually-reinforcing manner. Ugandans and development partners are urged to work together for mutual benefit, allowing communities and regions to determine the development path and be in the driver’s seat. Ugandans and our friends and well-wishers are urged to read and enrich the NRP and adopt it as a national alternative blueprint to the NRM policies that did not work and were finally abandoned in 2009 without a viable replacement – hence the current crisis that has brought us to the cross roads. Finally, it is very important to stress that unity is a prerequisite to overcome the political economy challenges in front of us. Accordingly, this meeting organized by FDC that has brought together political parties and organizations is a welcome step in the right direction. Thank you for your kind attention. Eric Kashambuzi Secretary-General, UDU
Posted on: Tue, 03 Jun 2014 07:04:07 +0000
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