UK-Elect General Election Forecast, January 2015. Hung Parliament - Labour Short By 40 The dramatic and still-increasing Scottish National Party support since the Independence Referendum is illustrated in this latest British political forecast - with the 51 seats achieved by the SNP sufficient to deprive Labour of an effective governing majority and to make them by far the third largest party. In fact, any result similar to that forecast would put the SNP in a very strong position to choose who governs Britain. Taken together with the rise of the UK Independence Party and the fall in Liberal Democrat support in the polls, there can be little doubt that British politics is entering one of its most fascinating periods ever. This forecast was done by an experimental UK-Elect method based on a blend of the traditional Uniform National Swing and proportional loss forecasting techniques, but also taking account of recent local constituency opinion polls and by elections, and using multiple iterations to achieve the correct target percentages. The GB percentages used for this forecast were Lab 33%, Con 32%, UKIP 15%, Lib Dem 9%, Green 6%. For Scotland the percentages used were SNP 45%, Lab 25%, Con 14%, Lib Dem 6%, UKIP 5%, Green 4%, and for Wales separate percentages were also used of Lab 36% Con 23% UKIP 18% Plaid Cymru 11% Green 5% and Lib Dem 5%. Other parties votes were not specifically set. ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts.html
Posted on: Sat, 10 Jan 2015 19:12:38 +0000
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