*** UPDATE ON FEB 3 IN VA MC WVA MD DEL ** and ABOUT FEB 8-9 ** What you are looking at here is the European model which is just HOT off the presses .. Valid for Monday afternoon February 3. Again the European model insists that the cold front is **NOT ** going to get as far south as what the other models are showing. In other words the cold air will not be strong enough or deep enough over Central Virginia so that when the precipitation starts Monday morning ... Temperatures will be in the upper30s so all the precipitation will be rain. I have drawn in the purple rain snow line so everybody north of that line will be seeing snow or a mixture of precipitation that goes over to snow. This means that the northern half of the Shenandoah Valley from STAUNTON to Winchester and Martinsburg as well as all of Washington, DC and Northern Virginia as well as Baltimore and into philly and Southern New Jersey will see snow. Just to the south thee be a mixture of precipitation which will go over snow as the cold air filter southward . This and include areas such as Roanoke Lexington Charlottesville and Fredericksburg and possibly into Southern Maryland. For most of southwestern Virginia all of North Carolina the Richmond metro area and all of Hampton roads lists looks to be a significant but pure rain event . It is possible that the boundary of the mix precipitation that transitions over to snow could get a little closer towards Lynchburg and Richmond and the northern neck . The info / description that a given above is a **approximate ** location of how I see things developing . There is some wiggle room here but the event is only three days away at best . Rest assured that if you are in southeastern third of Virginia and all of North Carolina that this is not in any way a snow event. This is a pure rain event and the temperatures will be in the 40s ***FEB 8 -9 *** READ CAREFULLY The overnight European model and the one here to midday continue to show a weaker system for February 8 and 9 and a track which is more inland then on or off the coast. This would mean perhaps a brief period of snow in the Middle Atlantic states followed by significant rain with milder temperatures. The last several runs of the operational G FS model also agrees with this idea. The threat of a significant or massive snowstorm for the middle Atlantic states is decreasing. That does not mean is going to be no system. There still may be a significant system February 8-9 that could bring significant snow too many areas but the idea of a pure huge snowstorm hitting the Middle Atlantic and or New England is less and less likely
Posted on: Fri, 31 Jan 2014 18:57:35 +0000
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