***UPDATE ON THE MONSOON AND TROPICAL LOW/POSSIBLE CYCLONE*** Good afternoon to everyone in the Townsville storms area and beyond, Allan with a tropical weather update and hope your weekend was a great one! This afternoon again will look at the model guidance on the LOW in in the north west Coral Sea and what they are projecting may take place. Currently, a monsoon trough currently lies over the northern Coral Sea with two lows embedded in it. A low near the Solomon islands lies in a marginally favourable environment for development and may intensify a little during Monday morning, possibly reaching Category 1 tropical cyclone strength, before moving to the southeast and remaining well away from Queensland. A second low lies approximately 500km east of Cooktown and is currently in an unfavourable environment for development. It is expected to remain offshore early in the week. The environment may improve a little by mid week, leading to a risk of the low beginning to develop as it moves towards the Queensland Coast. Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the northwest Coral Sea on: Monday Low Tuesday Low Wednesday Moderate As you can see from the BOMs outlook cyclone development will be slow due to wind shear tearing the lows structure apart for Monday and Tuesday before wind shear relaxes on wednesday, which, IF this does occur will allow this second low to start deepening to cyclone towards intensity. As a side note this needs to be treated as always with caution and use this and the rest of the update as a GUIDE ONLY. There is still no immediate cyclone threat and most model guidance holds this system as a deep low or weak cyclone as it nears the coast. If it even actually makes it to the coast Overview of the computer guidance. (to see exact different track forecasts click on images below) 1. European moves the low/cyclone towards the south initially before adopting more of a south east track while in a weakening trend before washing out into a trough system on Thursday off the coast of about bowen. 2. Ukmet more or less has the Low/cyclone slow moving but in a general easterly direction away from the coast. 3. GFS is a bit of an outlier and intensifies the low into a low end Category 1 moving it in a general south west to south south west direction initially getting close in a weakening trend to the Townsville coast before adopting a south east track parallel to the Townsville coast still in a weakening trend then moving away from the QLD coast. 4. CMC is the most easterly outlier and moves the low/cyclone in a steady east to south east direction away from the QLD coast. 5. Navgem (us navy) is also in a general agreement with the GFS and moves the low/cyclone towards the coast in a weakening trend but is the northern oulier where it landfalls the system just to the north of Cairns. 6. The BOMs Access G keeps the low stationary before completely washing the low out to be nothing more than apart of the monsoon trough. As you can see this guidance is still really all over the place mainly due to conditions not being very favourable in the atmosphere for cyclone development overall especially in the short term. However as always it is still important to stay up to date with the latest posted on this system in case things change. Hope everyone has a great Sunday night. Allan
Posted on: Sun, 11 Jan 2015 09:36:05 +0000
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