US Monday Weather Forecast Compliments of Tim Hannagan Grain Specialist for Walsh Trading, Inc. 312-957-8108 or 888-391-7894 email: thannagan@walshtrading Please find the current Weather Forecast provided by WxRisk. We hope you find it useful. This statement is being issued at 0945 EDT AUGUST 5 and based upon a total review of ALL the Model data and surface reports. RIGHT NOW The Monday morning radar shows three clusters of showers and thunderstorms. The first cluster can be found over southeast portions of South Dakota. The second cluster over northeastern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. The third cluster is over south central and southeastern Missouri. nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php WHAT HAPPENED SUNDAY SUNDAY MAX TEMPS weather.unisys/surface/temp_hi.gif 70s over eastern MT, all of ND, SD, eastern half of NEB, eastern third of KS, MN, eastern IA, WI, eastern MO, MI, IND, and OH... 80s over eastern WY and eastern COL, western NEB, central and western KS, western MO, western IA, KY, TN, and eastern and Northern ARK... Low 90s over northern MS, AL, and GA, southern and western ARK, eastern OK... and 95-100 over all of TX including the Panhandle and western half of OK and all of LA. RAINFALL AUGUST 4 - 5 -- Rainfall SUNDAY 0700 CDT to MONDAY 0700 CDT. The rainfall map for the last 24 hours ending as of 0700 CDT AUG 5... clearly shows the impact of the three significant areas of rain during the overnight hours. There is one area of light rains over western and central COL, into northern NM (60% coverage of 0.10 to 0.50")... eastern third of KS into southern MO and northwest ARK (65% coverage of 0.15 to 0.75" over KS and northwest ARK...but up to 2.50" in southern MO) and the third area is over eastern SD into the southern half of MN and western WI. Coverage was 60-70% with 0.15 to 1.25". weather.unisys/surface/prec_day.gif SUMMARY: Some rains all areas in Day 1-5, BUT the central Plains & Lower Midwest see 1-3". 6-10 day very wet central Plains into MO & TN valley, dry & COOL over Upper Plains & Most of Midwest. 11-15 day looks wet and COOL EVERYWHERE. DAY 1 - 5 / AUGUST 5 - 9 The MONDAY morning weather map shows the stalled front across the Deep South running from southern NC into SC and across central portions of GA, AL, MS, and into northern LA. From there the front cuts up into central ARK and across the Texas panhandle up into eastern COL. There is a stationary front running from eastern Alberta Canada along the spine of the Rockies through eastern MT and WY. HIGH pressure is centered over the Great Lakes. The large area of HIGH pressure covering much of the Midwest and the Northeast that is centered over the Great Lakes this afternoon will be slide eastward over the next two days. As it does, so the stalled front over the Deep South will begin to lift northward... as a warm front... towards the central Plains and into MO and TN. This will allow for significant showers and thunderstorms to redevelop starting on Wednesday. At the same time the next strong cold front coming out of southwest Canada will sweep through the Upper and central Plains and the Midwest starting Wednesday night and into Thursday AM. This front will bring all areas SOME rain. North of I-70, 0.25-1.25", 60% coverage. SOUTH of I-70... the front is going to stall (again) in another west to east orientation by the time we reach the weekend. As a result, all the model shows a pretty wide area of rain across eastern COL, all of TN, MO, southern third of ILL, and IND, all of KY and TN. The rainfall amounts ranged from 1-3", but there are some pockets of 4" as well. 0z EUROPEAN MODEL DAY 1-5 RAINFALL FORECAST images1.earthsat/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/00/pcpsums/0120/ECM_00_opUS_PS_0120.png 6-10 DAY / AUG 10 - 14 The pattern, in general, repeats itself with another deep trough centered over the eastern half of the country which in turn is being anchored by a large upper low in the jet stream centered over Ontario, Canada. This Jet stream pattern configuration results in a another cold front being pushed southward, followed by another large cool HIGH that comes out of Canada and right through the central and upper plains and all the Midwest. The Sunday afternoon Canadian European and GFS models show this cold front stalling in a general northwest to southeast orientation -- from western portions of Nebraska or South Dakota, southeast into Northeast Kansas, Missouri, across the far southern portions of Illinois, and into all of Kentucky and Tennessee. Along this stalled front, all the models show a widespread 1-3" rain. The European model has most of Iowa fairly dry, but the GFS and the Canadian models have southern and western Iowa seeing some rain from this setup. Areas north of this front will see more below to much below normal temperatures and the areas to the south of this front... over the Delta and Lower Plains look hot and dry. 6-10 DAY GFS RAINFALL FORECAST images1.earthsat/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/pcpsums/0120/GFS_00_opUS_PS_0240.png 6-10 DAY ECMWF RAINFALL FORECAST images1.earthsat/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/00/pcpsums/0120/ECM_00_opUS_PS_0240.png 11-15 DAY / AUGUST 15 - 19 In the 11 to 15 day the model data has not changed. There is very strong agreement among all three models and their respective ensembles that a new... deep... and wide massive trough will continue to be the dominating feature over the Midwest and the East Coast throughout this period. This LINK shows the 0z ECMWF ENSEMBLE... and the dark BLUE shows how deep this trough is. The 0z EURO ensemble is the same way. earthsat/misc/mod-images/ECM/EN/00/ECM_00_enNA_H500DP_1115.png As a result of this deep trough the GFS and European ensembles show huge areas of the central an upper Plains and portions of the Midwest receiving anywhere from 200 to 350% above normal rainfall for the 11-15 day. This is the 0z Sunday euro ensembles showing 11-15 day rainfall RELATIVE to NORMAL. earthsat/misc/mod-images/ECM/EN/00/pcpsums/1115/ECM_00_enUS_PPDP_1115.png This is the 12z Sunday GFS ensemble showing 11-15 day rainfall -- RELATIVE TO NORMAL. earthsat/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/12/pcpsums/1115/GFS_12_enUS_PPDP_1115.png
Posted on: Tue, 06 Aug 2013 04:28:28 +0000