US Senate Polls - Nate Silver now says 59% chance Repubs take the Senate. Alasks, Arkansas and Louisiana now all going strongly Red it would seem... But the polling had almost no impact on the bottom line: Republicans remain slight favorites to win the Senate in the FiveThirtyEight forecast. Their chances are 59.4 percent according to our model, not meaningfully changed from 58.5 percent as of our previous update on Friday. The least favorable results for Democrats were the YouGov numbers in Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana, all of which had Republican challengers ahead of the Democratic incumbents by margins of about 5 percentage points. Democrats Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Mark Begich of Alaska each saw their chances decline to about 25 percent from 30 percent with the new polls added. It would be a mistake to dismiss the importance of these states. If Republicans become more certain to win them, they’ll have a clear path toward picking up six Democrat-held Senate seats, as the races in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia look like near-certain gains for the GOP. Republicans would then need to win just one of Iowa, Colorado or Kansas to take control of the Senate (or they’d need to convince Orman to caucus with them if Roberts loses).
Posted on: Sat, 11 Oct 2014 02:01:19 +0000
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