USA Today - 3/5/2014 Economic reality may restrain Putin From page 1A One silver lining in drawing Russia closer to the West over the past two decades was to make Moscow feel real economic pain if it pulled any Soviet- style stunts. ANDREY RUDAKOV, BLOOMBERG As Russia’s squeeze on the Crimea intensified Sunday, the ruble plunged from 34 to 40 to the dollar. When Soviet President Leonid Brezhnev unleashed tanks on Prague in 1968, he didn’t worry about the impact on the ruble. Vladimir Putin does. As Russia’s squeeze on the Crimea intensified Sunday, the ruble plunged from 34 to 40 to the dollar. That was never a factor for Brezhnev because the ruble was artificially valued. There was no exchange rate with the dollar. Even had there been one, Brezhnev would have shrugged it off because the state owned everything — every restaurant, every bread store, every car plant. Not so today. Certainly Russian President Putin has plenty of power at his fingertips, but he also must contend with a growing business community, even if many are oligarchs beholden to him, that doesn’t want resources cut off, gas contracts canceled or tourism abruptly halted. “Money doesn’t love war,” tweeted Russian businessman Gennadi Gudkov, once called “one of parliament’s most vocal and charismatic critics” of Putin by The Moscow Times. That in itself is a very non- Soviet notion — a high- profile critic who can spread his message worldwide in an instant and go to work the next day. Michael McFaul, who had been U. S. ambassador to Russia until just a week ago, is back in California tweeting his own commentary. It may be the closest we will see this diplomatic crisis from an unmuzzled insider. “Russian companies and banks with business in the West will suffer as a result of reckless Putin decision,” tweeted McFaul, back as a Stanford professor. “Will they speak up?” Earlier, McFaul told The New York Times that President Obama should do more to ensure that Russia’s business- minded establishment understands that it would find itself cut off. The former ambassador also noted other constraints on Putin, even as the Russian leader flexes his muscles: “Only 90 senators out of 166 voted to support Putin call for military action” But the space opened up by the lifting of heavy Soviet hands is a two- sided reality. I was in Moscow when the coup against Mikhail Gorbachev unraveled as Russian President Boris Yeltsin stared down the coup plotters and tanks. As the takeover collapsed, Soviet tanks in central Moscow turned around and made their way slowly back to their bases. A Russian friend stood at the window as the tanks rolled by and said, “For the first time in my life, I am proud to be a Russian.” That concept of a real Russia — not an artificial Soviet construct — is now a powerful, building force. Last month, I saw normally cynical Russians stand and cheer the Russian national anthem at a Moscow sports bar as the country’s athletes marched in the Olympic opening ceremonies. This sometimes nascent Russian pride is what Putin built on with the Olympic extravaganza in Sochi. It was what fed the rabid Russian hockey fans desperate for their team to win. That new pride also spawns sympathy among many Russians over Ukraine — long seen as a step- child to Russia — and a protective sense toward Russianspeaking people living there. Russians want to puff their chests a bit and hold up their heads — perhaps not enough to support an all- out invasion, but enough to support Putin in defending the Russian Naval base at Sevastopol and so- called Russian interests in Ukraine. It’s why the West is careful to note that the interests of Russians living in Ukraine must be taken into account in the crisis. International Olympic Committee President Thomas Bach noted at the Olympics’ close that a “new Russia” is emerging. Now that troops of that New Russia are descending on Crimea, Putin may find there are restraints that even a Soviet- style impulse cannot overcome. This article was shared by a user of PressReader - an online source of publications from around the world. PressReader contains copyrighted material, trademarks and other proprietary information. Receipt of this article should not be interpreted as grant of any licenses express or implied, to the intellectual property of PressReader or publishers of publications presented. PressReader – Connecting People Through News PressReader, 200-13111 Vanier Place, Richmond BC V6V 2J1, Canada Phone: +1 604 278 4604 © 2003-2014 NewspaperDirect Inc. dba PressReader. All rights reserved. Terms of Use: pressdisplay/pressdisplay/showlink.aspx?pageid=ins_terms Privacy Policy: pressdisplay/pressdisplay/showlink.aspx?pageid=ins_privacy
Posted on: Tue, 04 Mar 2014 02:48:51 +0000
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