Uhu !!!! Hee banna!!!! Botswana Stopped 2008 Civil War in Zimbabwe, Study Claims Obonye Jonas2, David Mandiyanike3, and Zibani Maundeni*,1 1 Political Science at the University of Botswana, Botswana 2 Department of Law at the University of Botswana, Botswana CONCLUSION This article used the theory of pivotal deterrence to analyse the role of a third party state (the deterrer) of preventing a civil situation in another country, from exploding into a full blown civil war. The theory posited that the deterrer state must be friendly to the belligerent parties, but with enough flexibility to switch sides in its support of the belligerent parties to a civil war situation; it must possess enough resources to make its military intervention a deciding factor as to who wins the war if it breaks out; its military manoeuvres must leave no doubt that it would intervene if war broke out. What this theory suggests is that civil wars (as in Syria) break out because there was no credible pivotal deterrence. In short, civil wars are preventable through the clear manoeuvrings of a pivotal state. This article sought to demonstrate this point by considering the role that Botswana played as a pivotal state during the Zimbabwe political crisis in 2008. We have shown that Zimbabwe was evidently sliding into civil war, with both sides (the ZANU PF government and the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change) speedily becoming militant and actively arming. Our argument was that Botswana played a crucial role in preventing the civil war. It did this by being friendly to the ZANU PF government that was busy arming for war and terrorizing the opposition, and by amassing soldiers and heavy artillery on the Botswana/Zimbabwe borders, a clear signal that it intended to intervene militarily. It was clear that Botswana intended to intervene militarily against the ZANU PF government. Such a visible military posture made it uncertain that ZANU would emerge victorious in any armed confrontation, compelling it to negotiate with its rival. CONFLICT OF INTEREST The authors confirm that this article content has no conflicts of interest.
Posted on: Tue, 24 Sep 2013 16:16:43 +0000
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