Unfortunately no update planned again today. As we work hard to try and figure this storm out more curve balls get thrown. yesterday a MUCH weaker trend was noted and today all bets are off again. In 15 years doing this I have never seen a situation like this unfold with the models. If the general public had any idea the model hell that has been dealt with to try and come up with a dependable forecast you would have a vast new found respect for meteorologists. In this case everyone from enthusiasts to the pro mets have been left scratching their heads. I have read several NWS forecaster discussions that are just as confused as the rest of us even one say they were hesitant to even say what could happen. so am I just know that I am trying hard to figure out what will happen. The problem also is this a highly unusual Pacific jet and we have one strong storm in the gulf of Alaska and one HUGE one off the CA coast(the Japan storm most likely) and unfortunately both sit in a data sparse region. I am hoping by tomorrow evening we have a better idea of what will happen. This is whats frustrating about now having data from 4-7 days out from storm like Jan 25th 1978 or some of monsters from the 60s is we really dont know if we are seeing how those storms would of played out with todays models 3-7 days out. Even most will tell you that 1978 would never of been expected to go to 955mb. All I can say here is stay tuned. I felt I owed everyone at least a semblance of an explanation.
Posted on: Sun, 21 Dec 2014 16:43:56 +0000
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