Update on storm threats over the eastern third of the U.S. 1) With the Madden-Julian Oscillation re-firing and aiding in amplification of the northern and southern branches of the jet stream, we have no less than three significant storm possibilities over the next 12 days or so. The first system is now moving along the Gulf Coast, will turn northeastward to near Cape Hatteras NC by late Friday night. This feature will be a fast mover, undergo dramatic deepening as it moves very close to a classic Noreaster track (through 40/70 Benchmark early Sunday, then into the Bay of Fundy. 2) The fast forward speed of this system, combined with an influx or maritime air (warmer) will keep accumulations down. Still, amounts exceeding 4 are possible to the left of the storm track. Vertical velocities increase in cold advection just behind the surface low, so I suspect even snow-starved Long Island NY will see at least 1 - 2 of the white stuff. Check the map for details in your location. 3) The follow-up storm looks quite healthy on satellite and numerical model forecasts. I suspect that many locations in the Corn Belt/Ohio Valley, Appalachia and Mid-Atlantic states will see perhaps 2 - 4 of snow followed by some cold air on Monday and Tuesday. 4) A third and possibly intense disturbance now lurking off of the coast of Baja California must be watched closely. The European model, as well as the GGEM ensemble package from 12z Jan 22 suggests that the low will deepen in the giant cold trap 500MB trough, and move along the Atlantic Coastline between February 1 and 3. And yes, the forecast over the eastern half of the nation remains quite cold through February 7. At least. Stay safe, and enjoy whatever precipitation you see.
Posted on: Thu, 22 Jan 2015 19:56:19 +0000
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