Updated Outlook The outlook has flipped flopped, well somewhat. My first impression of what I was viewing on the weather data was wrong. I looked back on notes I keep during the seasons. Surprisingly this flip flop switch-a-roonie has happened before. If you can remember back to my winter outlook I had mentioned the reloading effect of the cold air. This is exactly what is happening, except the models masked it with a couple week long warmup. Or did they? That was the weird part of it. Thats when I looked at some note.... This couple of week long warming was something the models were confused about. Why? Something was warming in the atmosphere but it wasnt the 2ms or the 850mb part part of the atmosphere. It is actually is the stratosphere ( 10mb ) that will be warming. Now this location the stratosphere is where the actual PV (polar vortex) is located. These are high level winds that are located above the arctic circle. The PV weakens during winter months and does warm some and during the summer it gets cold. This event we watch closely forms in the winter months known as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSW.) SSW creates sustained Arctic outbreaks over the United States by splitting the PV usually positioning a portion of the PV over the middle and eastern parts of the CONGUS and the other settles over northern UK to Russian areas. What does this all mean for us here on Delmarva? Well as Ive said we will have a warmup starting at the end of this week into Thanksgiving Day. This will be short lived as the reloading factor will shoot another blast of below average temperatures for the area. As of now I dont believe they will be as cold as what we have seen today but will be close. Temperatures will range from -2 to -8 degrees below average. I still dont see a big possibility for any snowstorms for us here yet as it is still early for such events. In December the increase of chances does increase statically but nothing is in the showing of such things happening. Now the first two pictures are 2 meter temperatures for Monday Nov 24. First is the CMC ensemble and the second is the GFS hi-res. These two runs back each other up as we will see temperatures in the mid 60s possibly a couple of spots even could touch the 70 mark. Monday seems to be the peak of the heat if you will. Then temperatures seem to run at or near normal till about Friday Nov 28. Friday Nov 28. As of now models are showing a potential cold front that has already pushed through our area and here comes another shot of cold air as seen as the 2 meter temperature anomalies as seen in pic #3. Now IF and I do mean IF this works out this way the next arctic blast will be here on Delmarva on Saturday Nov 29. This is also shown with the GFS hires model, pic #4. This is quite possible to change. By that I mean the intensity of this next cold blast. I do quite believe it will happen but to what extent Im not sure yet, mind you this is 10 days out. We will keep you posted as times goes on, and what we might expect for December. Enjoy the warmth while its here not to sure how long it will be before we see it again. DW
Posted on: Wed, 19 Nov 2014 18:03:58 +0000
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