*** VIC, TAS & NSW THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON *** Even though looks like some models dont agree and the BOM forecasts dont generally show it much it looks like the GFS model has been very persistent in forecasting some thunderstorm development thanks to a trough (the current system over WA and western SA) crossing southern NSW, Victoria and Tasmania later on Wednesday. The GFS model is normally fairly good at forecasting thunderstorm albeit even if they are isolated so we thought we would put it out there. It has been persistent run after run in forecasting few storms to develop run after run for parts of western & central Victoria and southern and central Tasmania on Wednesday afternoon as a trough pushes in slowly from the west and then continues to track into eastern NSW on Thursday producing some shower and thunderstorm activity through this region. We dont expect activity to be widespread but one to keep an eye on at the very least as this system moves slowly through. it will become very warm ahead of this trough in SE OZ the next couple of days with milder southerly breeze pushing in behind the trough. Rainfall will be minimal & sparse with this system but if you happen to get a thunderstorm local falls of 5-15mm are possible. Map one: BSCH potential thunderstorm activity for Wednesday afternoon across Victoria and NSW, data used from the GFS model. Map two: BSCH potential thunderstorm activity for Wednesday afternoon across Tasmania, data used from the GFS model. Map three: BSCH potential thunderstorm activity for Thursday afternoon through NSW, data used from the GFS model. - JWC
Posted on: Mon, 20 Oct 2014 10:59:43 +0000
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