VLADIMIR PUTIN: SEMPLICEMENTE UN PERDENTE rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/christophermajka/2014/07/blundering-ukraine-putins-strategic-debacle Worse still, from Putins perspective, is that emboldened by the Ukrainian example, and repelled by the Russian one, both Georgia and Moldova, formerly Soviet republics, also signed association agreements with the EU, clearly signaling what model of social, political, and economic development they are interested in pursuing. And even worse, Russias Crimean annexation and overt military interference in the Donbas has significantly boosted the popularity of NATO in Ukraine. As recently as four years ago PEW Research found that 40 per cent of Ukrainians regarded NATO as a threat, 51 per cent opposed NATO membership, and only 28 per cent were in favour of it (and other polls found levels of support as low as 12.5 per cent). However, polling conducted in June 2014 by the Gorshenin Institute found that support for NATO in Ukraine had increased to 47.3 per cent. NATO expansion is something that concerns Putin even more than EU expansion and his tactics have driven the Ukrainian public in precisely the opposite direction. And even worse still, this Russian adventurism is propelling formerly neutral countries such as Finland and Sweden to consider NATO membership, much to the fury and frustration of the Russian leadership. Even if they do not, the mistrust generated in the Nordic countries (as well as the Baltic states and the Caucuses) by the annexation of Crimea and Russias military and political interference on the territory of a neighbouring state, is apt to persist for years, if not decades -- all significant setbacks to the Putin agenda. Although the Ukrainian gambit may have worked domestically in Russia to Putins advantage, it has dramatically harmed his image and popularity in Ukraine -- and not just in Ukrainian speaking regions of the country. The results of polling conducted by Rating, a socio-political pollster in Ukraine, show that in eastern regions of the country such as Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhiia (which have substantial populations of Russian speakers) Putins popularity has fallen from 62 per cent in October 2013, to 19 percent in April 2014. Similarly in southern regions of the country such as Odessa, Mykolayiv and Kherson, where there are also significant numbers of Russian speakers, his popularity has fallen from 57 to 14 per cent during the same time. In the Donbas it has increased slightly from 63 to 66 per cent. However, polling conducted by the International Republican Institute shows that even in the Donbas, this popularity does not translate into support for Russian annexation or an independent state (such as the self-proclaimed Peoples Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk). In eastern Ukraine including the Donbas (where the largest concentration of Russian-speakers live), only 5 per cent of the population supports Russian annexation or an independent state. Forty per cent support the current Ukrainian state, and 35 per cent a unitary state with a federal structure giving greater autonomy for local regions (i.e., 75 per cent support a unified Ukraine; only 5 percent support division).
Posted on: Sat, 26 Jul 2014 08:02:47 +0000
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