WAR, what is it good for? Ranking free agents... (The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and baserunning, OR runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Wins Above Replacement stat, is peak-adjusted in this article by combining regular WAR with Wins Above Excellence & Wins Above MVP - Weighted provides a more effective number for marketing..It shows by numbers a more accurate number to rate a player. (in this case, for free agency) For example: Ages listed (Scherzer will be 30 as of Opening Day 2015, asterisks indicate players who received qualifying offers.) (BABIP: or batting average on balls in play, was originally designed to measure a pitchers ability to prevent hits on balls in play. Today its widely used to evaluate both pitchers and hitters, and its a calculation of a hitters batting average - or pitchers batting average allowed - on batted balls put into the field of play. That means walks and strikeouts dont count; those arent batted balls. Nor do home runs; those dont land within the field of play.) (FIP is a measurement of a pitcher’s performance that strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time than a runs allowed based statistic that would be highly dependent on the quality of defense played behind him, for example. Certain pitchers have shown an ability to consistently post lower ERAs than their FIP suggests, but overall FIP captures most pitchers’ true performance.) • Max Scherzer, RHP, 30* 3-year WAR (weighted): 16.9 (35.6) The asking price will be sky-high for the 2013 AL Cy Young Award winner, who is 39-8 with a 3.02 ERA over the past two seasons. Any big, long-term deal for a pitcher entering his 30s carries significant risk, but Scherzer checks every box in terms of stuff, results and durability, with six straight seasons of 30-plus starts. • Russell Martin, C, 32* 3-year WAR (weighted): 11.6 (26.8) He set a career high with a .402 OBP in 2014 and is by far the best catcher on the market. However, that OBP was supported by a .336 BABIP, which was way out of line with his career .289 mark and suggests some regression is in store. • Chase Headley, 3B, 30 3-year WAR (weighted): 13.6 (24.4) He hasnt been able to replicate his breakout 2012 season, which has inflated his three-year WAR total, when he finished fifth in the NL MVP voting. Still, Headley posted a .371 OBP and .768 OPS after escaping Petco Park for Yankee Stadium this July, and third basemen who consistently add value on both sides of the ball are not easy to find. His glove makes him more valuable than most realize. • Hanley Ramirez, SS, 31* 3-year WAR (weighted): 10.3 (22.6) Though injuries have hampered Ramirez over much of the past two seasons, hes still one of the most explosive shortstops in the league when healthy. His numbers were so phenomenal in 2013, he hit .345 with 20 home runs, that he finished eighth in NL MVP voting, despite playing only 86 games. Hes no longer the 30-30 threat that he was in his earlier days, but hes still hit double-digit home runs in all of his nine seasons and stolen 10 or more bases in all but one of those campaigns. • Hiroki Kuroda, RHP, 40 3-year WAR (weighted): 12.0 (20.9) The Yankees declined to give a qualifying offer to the steady veteran, who made $16 million last year and could return for an eighth MLB season or go back to Japan. Even at his advanced age, few pitchers offer the consistency of Kuroda, who has put together five straight seasons with at least 196 innings and an ERA better than league average. • James Shields, RHP, 33* 3-year WAR (weighted): 10.1 (20.8) The 14 postseason didnt bolster Shields Big Game nickname, and his next contract could cover his mid-to-late 30s, which can be dangerous terrain. Still, Shields has thrown the most innings in baseball since 2007 and is one of three pitchers to reach the 200 mark in each of those years, including at least 227 in each of the last four. That sort of durability is difficult to find. • Jon Lester, LHP, 31 3-year WAR (weighted): 8.3 (20.5) He has made at least 31 starts in every season since 2008, but took his performance to another level in 14. In a contract year split between Boston and Oakland, Lester posted career bests in ERA, FIP, WHIP, innings, walk rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio. Teams will have to decide if they want to bet top dollar on the southpaw sustaining most of that improvement. • Victor Martinez, DH, 36* 3-year WAR (weighted): 7.2 (19.5) Primarily a designated hitter at this stage of his career, Martinez did make 33 starts at first base this past season and two more behind the plate. Defensive role aside, Martinez led the American League with a .409 on-base percentage and topped all Major Leaguers with his .974 OPS. All this while crushing a career-best 32 home runs and striking out only 42 times. • Nelson Cruz, LF, 34* 3-year WAR (weighted): 7.6 (19.2) He figures to appeal more to an AL team that can use him at least part-time at DH, as the Orioles did this year. But even NL clubs might live with the defense after Cruz led the Majors with 40 homers in a power-starved season, driving in 108 runs and slugging .525. • Pablo Sandoval, 3B, 28* 3-year WAR (weighted): 8.2 (18.2) Another strong postseason has only bolstered Sandovals position. His issues with conditioning and injuries will impact negotiations on a long-term deal, but the Panda still is one of just five third basemen to produce at least 2 WAR in five of the past six seasons. • Jake Peavy, RHP, 33 3-year WAR (weighted): 8.7 (14.2) The veteran rebuilt some value after his July 26 trade from Boston (4.72 ERA) to San Francisco (2.17), though he stumbled in the postseason. Staying in the NL probably makes the most sense for Peavy, who posted a career-low strikeout rate this season, along with his worst strikeout-to-walk ratio since 2003. • Colby Rasmus, CF, 28 3-year WAR (weighted): 7.3 (13.7) Injuries have held Rasmus to 222 games over the past two seasons, and hes put up a sub-.300 OBP in three of the past four. Over the last four seasons, hes averaged 19 home runs per year, with a .430 slugging percentage, setting him apart in a shallow market for center fielders. • Melky Cabrera, LF, 30* 3-year WAR (weighted): 7.5 (13.4) He consistently rates below average according to ultimate zone rating, but with the exception of an injury-plagued 88 games in 2013, Cabrera has cleared an .800 OPS in three of the past four years. The switch-hitter is a threat from both sides of the plate and produced a .301/.351/.458 line this season, drawing a qualifying offer from Toronto. • Nori Aoki, RF, 33 3-year WAR (weighted): 7.5 (12.6) In three seasons since coming over from Japan, Aoki has consistently provided roughly league-average offense, hitting .287/.353/.387 and posting the leagues third-lowest strikeout rate. However, hes been an inefficient basestealer, going 37-for-57 (64.9 percent) the past two years, and his defense in right can be an adventure. • Adam LaRoche, 1B, 35 3-year WAR (weighted): 7.2 WAR (12.5) Despite his age, LaRoche has averaged 26.5 homers over the past three seasons, while also steadily improving his walk rate. The 11-year veteran worked a career-high 82 walks this past season, helping him to put up another personal-best .362 on-base percentage. • Jason Hammel, RHP, 32 3-year WAR (weighted): 6.2 (12.3) What are you going to get out of Hammel? Interested teams will be wondering as much after a four-year stretch in which his ERA fluctuated from 4.76 to 3.43 to 4.97 to 3.47, and his FIP followed suit. Even within 14, Hammel posted a 2.98 ERA in 17 games for the Cubs, then 4.26 in 13 games for the As, with a 5.10 FIP. • Alex Rios, RF, 34 3-year WAR (weighted): 7.3 (10.6) The Rangers declined their $13.5 million option on Rios, who battled injuries and didnt play at least 145 games for the first time since 2006. Rios hit .280, but his power evaporated, with only four homers and a sub-.400 slugging percentage. He also tumbled from a career-high 42 steals to 17. • Francisco Liriano, LHP, 31* 3-year WAR (weighted): 4.4 (10.4) If Liriano leaves Pittsburgh, where he turned around his career over the past two seasons, hell present a high-risk, high-reward option for potential suitors. The lefty misses bats (9.7 strikeouts per nine innings in 14) but also issues a lot of free passes (4.5 walks per nine), and his ERA and FIP both climbed significantly from 2013 to 14. • Torii Hunter, RF, 39 3-year WAR (weighted): 7.8 (10.3) His bat remains solid, producing a 111 OPS+ last year that matched his career total and put him above league-average for an 11th straight year. But age has chipped away at the nine-time Gold Glove-winners defense, with advanced metrics showing him well below average the past two seasons. • Chris Denorfia, RF, 34 3-year WAR (weighted): 6.4 (10.2) This ranking is buoyed by a 4.4 WAR seasons in 2013, and does not reflect Denorfias market value. Splitting his year between San Diego and Seattle, Denorfia hit a career-worst .230/.284/.318 in 14, thanks at least in part to an uncharacteristically low .283 BABIP. His .849 OPS against left-handed pitchers from 2010-13 makes him an attractive platoon option, though. • David Robertson, RHP, 29* 3-year WAR (weighted): 5.4 (10.1) Taking over for legendary closer Mariano Rivera, Robertson held his own in 14, racking up 39 saves and a 3.08 ERA. He was also lights out in his three years as a setup man from 2011-13 before assuming the closers role upon Riveras retirement. • Jed Lowrie, SS, 30 3-year WAR (weighted): 5.4 (9.2) Lowrie took a step back for the As in 14 after hitting a career-best .290 in 2013. He hit just .249 this past season and connected for only six home runs over 136 games after hitting 15 in 2013 and 16 in just 97 games the year before. Regardless, Lowrie would still be an offensive upgrade for a number of teams at shortstop. • Pat Neshek, RHP, 34 3-year WAR (weighted): 3.5 (8.6) Neshek may have earned himself a multi-year deal on the market this winter after a stellar 14 season. Signed to a Minor League deal at the beginning of camp, Neshek posted a 1.87 ERA in 67 1/3 innings over 71 games, while making his first All-Star appearance. Prior to this season, Neshek hadnt worked more than 40 1/3 innings since tossing 70 1/3 frames for the Twins all the way back in 07. • Luke Gregerson, RHP, 30 3-year WAR (weighted): 4.3 (8.4) Gregerson figures to be one of the most sought-after right-handed relievers on the market this winter. Hes coming off his best season as a pro, racking up a career-best 2.12 ERA over 72 appearances for the Athletics. Gregerson, who spent his first five seasons with the Padres before being traded to the As last winter, has now turned in a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the last four years. • Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, 29 3-year WAR (weighted): 5.5 (8.4) He was primarily a shortstop over the last six years, but spent the latter half of 14 at second base following a trade to the Nationals. An All-Star in 2011 and 2012, Cabreras defense has fallen off a bit over the last two years, though hes still hit double-digit homers in four straight seasons. • Ervin Santana, RHP, 32* 3-year WAR (weighted): 2.8 (8.1) Last season, Santana declined the Royals qualifying offer and didnt sign with the Braves until March. He faces a similar decision this year. Santana notched his second-best strikeout rate (8.2 strikeouts per nine) and FIP (3.39) in 14 despite a pedestrian 3.95 ERA. • Michael Cuddyer, RF, 36* 3-year WAR (weighted): 3.5 (7.8) After hitting a Coors Field-inflated .331 to win a batting title in 2013, Cuddyer actually raised his average by a point this year, but played only 49 games around three DL trips. If hes healthy, he offers a stellar bat, with a 121 OPS+ over the past six years, though defensive metrics suggest he might fit better at first base (or DH) by now. • Nick Markakis, RF, 31 3-year WAR (weighted): 3.5 (7.4) The Orioles declined Markakis $17.5 million option, but are still working to retain him for a 10th year in Baltimore. He offers durability, playing at least 155 games in seven of the past eight seasons, and a career .358 OBP (.342 in 14) that fits at or near the top of a lineup. But after slugging .455 from 2006-12, hes dipped to .371 since. • Josh Willingham, LF, 36 3-year WAR (weighted): 4.9 (7.4) He crushed 35 homers and slugged .524 as recently as 2012, but was limited to 203 games, 28 homers and a .380 slugging percentage while battling injuries in the two years since. There have been reports that he will retire after finishing up 14 in a bench role for the Royals. • Mark Ellis, 2B, 37 3-year WAR (weighted): 5.0 (7.2) Ellis struggled in his debut season with the Cardinals in 14, hitting only .180 over just 73 games. Retirement is certainly an option for the 37-year-old Ellis, though hes not too far removed from posting a respectable 2.8 WAR with the Dodgers in 2013, hitting .270 with 13 doubles and six homers.
Posted on: Thu, 06 Nov 2014 05:00:11 +0000
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