WDPN31 PGTW 011500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 03// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 011124Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS (T2.5) FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. TS 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 180-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24, THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY DUE TO IMPROVED UPPER- LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SST. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASED BAROCLINICITY. BECAUSE OF THE SURGE EVENT, THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT SLOW-DOWN AND WESTWARD TURN NEAR TAU 120. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AFTER TAU 96.// NNNN
Posted on: Mon, 01 Dec 2014 14:37:36 +0000
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