WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (LUIS) UPDATE NUMBER 004 Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Friday 12 September 2014 Next Update: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Saturday 13 September 2014 Tropical Storm KALMAEGI (LUIS) has strengthened further as it moved generally westward during the past 6 hours...threatens Central and Northern Luzon including the Bicol Region. The potential landfall area shall be over Isabela by Sunday evening, Sep 14. This storm is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across the western sections of Visayas and Mindanao including Palawan this weekend. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions. Residents and visitors along Luzon including Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas should closely monitor the development of KALMAEGI (Luis). Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information. CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone. Heavy Rains (50-100 mm): Eastern Visayas, Most parts of Luzon including Bicol Region. Read more... Strong Winds (75-100 kph): Northern Aurora, Northeastern portion of Quirino, Eastern Isabela, Northern and Eastern Cagayan, Northern Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Northwestern portion of Ilocos Sur, Northwestern part of Abra, and Babuyan Islands. Read more... CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT. Classification/Name: TS KALMAEGI (Luis) Location: Over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea (near 13.8N 130.6E) About: 615 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 690 km east of Virac, Catanduanes Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 100 kph 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and south of the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme] Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa) Size (in diameter): 335 km (Midget) Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None Past Movement: West @ 14 kph Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 16 kph Towards: Northern Luzon 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK* TS KALMAEGI (Luis) is expected to move west-northwest throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, TS KALMAEGI (Luis) will be moving towards the western part of the Philippine Sea by Sunday afternoon as it approaches the eastern shoreline of Isabela. TS KALMAEGI (Luis) will continue gaining strength throughout the forecast period as it traverses the warm waters of the Philippine Sea...and could become a Typhoon within the next 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 130 kph by Sunday afternoon. The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system: SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies further as it turns to WNW across the central part of the Philippine Sea...about 400 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM SEP 13: 15.0N 127.8E @ 100kph]. SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Gains speed slightly while moving towards the western part of the Philippine Sea...strengthens into a Typhoon...about 220 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora [2PM SEP 14: 16.6N 124.1E @ 130kph]. MONDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching the Northwestern border of P.A.R. after traversing Northern Luzon and emerging over the West Philippine Sea...weakens slightly...about 180 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM SEP 15: 18.5N 118.9E @ 120kph]. *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Posted on: Fri, 12 Sep 2014 11:06:52 +0000
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