WEATHER SUMMARY FOR SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA We have the low sitting right where it was yesterday. About 150 miles off the Coast of Northern California near San Francisco. When lows are positioned here they will trigger thunderstorms over Southern Oregon and Northern California. The trick is going to be in seeing what local conditions may develop that will affect thunderstorm activity over individual areas within the greater region. For example, a strong cap.....much stronger than anticipated...set up over Southwest Oregon yesterday. This kept thunderstorms at bay, but it also brought in heavy smoke from the Beaver Fire in Northern California and sent it pouring into Josephine and Douglas Counties. This concerned many people fearing a new fire had broken out and was very close to them. This smoke is going to be a very good indicator of what the cap is doing. If the smoke clears out and lifts, that means the atmosphere is doing the same thing...lifting. That is when we can see thunderstorms over Southwest Oregon. If the smoke remains low...no thunderstorms. One thing that is going to change today, the low is going to shift a bit and move northeast. That will put us in a better over all position to see storms in Southwest Oregon. Obviously we need the cap to break down first, but that SHOULD happen this afternoon and into this evening. The storms are still expected to be mostly high based with a lot of dry lightning strikes so the fire potential is incredibly high. Some storms this evening have the potential to turn severe. If they do, expect to see winds gusting to 60 miles an hour, and large hail to an inch in diameter or more. Storms will weaken after about 10 pm, but the potential is there for activity to continue through the night and into Tuesday morning. The low will be on the move during the day on Tuesday headed off to the northeast through Eastern Oregon and then out of the area.....but right on its heels will be another low that will give us a round of showers and storms for Wednesday across the region. These storms will be wet as the moisture component looks much different with this low than the one currently sitting off the Coast of California. Once we reach Thursday, the sun returns in full force and we will see a ridge building in over us. That will return us to hot weather by the weekend. The data still shows us getting to near 100 eventually, but it keeps moving the day for that to happen out by around 24 hours. Yesterday morning that day was Sunday. Today that day is Monday of next week. Lets see where this winds up happening if at all.
Posted on: Mon, 11 Aug 2014 14:57:47 +0000
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