WEATHER SYNOPSIS: ¤ Jan 10 at 0130pm ¤ ■ 1 Potential;1 LPA/s;0 Active;1 Threat ■ ☆ TODAYS FORECAST w/in PAR ⊙ NORTHEAST MONSOON in effect much of the Country. ⊙ FRONTAL SYSTEM & ITCZ in effect over Visayas & Mindanao. ※ It will bring cold & scattered to moderate rains, sometimes heavy in the afternoon & evening. ※ RESIDENTS IN MINDANAO should aware coz ITCZ will bring MODERATE to HEAVY RAINS on 13th. (5th Notice & 3 days left) ☆ FORECAST IN NEXT 7 DAYS OUTSIDE PAR * within 110E to 160E & Equator to 30N * ⊙ POTENTIAL AREA (PA1) a STRONG SYSTEM & a RAIN-MAKER to loomed/visible b/w 12th & 13th. → Model shown a WESTWARD TRACKS, threatens Mindanao & Visayas on 17th & beyond. → This could be the 92W SYSTEM,or could be another, 93W SYSTEM. It depends on how they(NRL) will designate this System. → We are in favor of model runs(GFS& NAVGEM) about the intensity/category, but not on the tracks. → It will be closely watch/monitor for possible changes or new developments occur. ⊙ 92W SYSTEM embedded with the ITCZ located near 2.5n 155.5e, moving W to WNW slowly with 35kph(19kts) within 300km radius from the Center. → Model shown this system will become a TROUGH on 12th, but this could be the PA1. It depends on how they(NRL) will designate this System. ■ Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) Update ■ ※ As of Jan 06 ※ → The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a strong driver of variability in the North Australian Monsoon. → A moderate strength MJO is currently located over Australian longitudes and is enhancing monsoonal activity across southern Indonesia and northern Australia. → The MJO is expected to move slowly eastwards over the western Pacific over the coming week. Some models indicate it may weaken in strength over the western Pacific, while others indicate it to maintain strength and continue to influence tropical weather. → As the MJO progresses into the West Pacific it may suppress monsoon activity over Australia for a short time. ※ Next MJO Update : Jan 13 ※ ~~~~~ °° Winds:1 kts = 1.852 kph ■ Satellite Imagery: NRL & NOAA Satellite. ■ Category/Intensity from World Meteorological Organization. ■ Coordinates, Movements, Wind Speed from NOAA. ■ Invest System info from NRL. ■ Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) Update from NOAA-ESRL. ■ Other Weather System from CIMSS. © philweathersystem.weebly/
Posted on: Sat, 10 Jan 2015 05:47:46 +0000
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