WEATHER SYNOPSIS: ¤ Jan 14 at 0130pm ¤ ■ 0 Potential;1 LPA/s;0 Active;1 Threat ■ ☆ TODAYS FORECAST w/in PAR ⊙ NORTHEAST MONSOON in effect much of the Country. ⊙ ITCZ in effect over Visayas & Mindanao. ※ It will bring cold & moderate to heavy rains, that may cause Floods & Landslides. ⊙ TD 01W is forecast to enter PAR b/w 15th & 16th → Due to UNCERTAINTY after Day 16th, it remains a threat to Visayas, Mindanao, & Bicol as TS or STS CATEGORY with HEAVY to INTENSE RAINS near the center & to the Northern Periphery of System. ☆ FORECAST IN NEXT 7 DAYS OUTSIDE PAR * within 110E to 160E & Equator to 30N * ⊙ TD 01W a STRONG SYSTEM & a RAIN-MAKER, but MINIMAL IMPACT. → located near 10.5n 138e(North of Yap) moving WNW to W slowly with 60kph (33kts) max winds within 200km radius from the center. → It might be name as MEKKHALA later today, as it intensify as TS. → Adjustments been made for 01W SYSTEM PRESENT LOCATION/POSITION → Model shows A RECURVE & NEAR MISS OVER EASTERN VISAYAS. In 4 of 5 runs, a RECURVE prevails over A NEAR MISS OVER E-VISAYAS. The PRECIPITATION is MINIMAL within the forecast tracks. (+/- 0.5 to 1° margin error) → There is still an UNCERTAINTY after Day 16th. → It will be closely watch/monitor for possible changes or new developments occur. ■ Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) Update ■ ※ As of Jan 13 ※ → The MJO is moving across the western Pacific Ocean and is likely to enhance convection over the Coral Sea and South Pacific this week. → Model forecasts for the MJO suggest it will weaken later this week and not be a strong influence on tropical weather. → The risk of tropical cyclone development will remain elevated over Australias northern waters and the far western Pacific Ocean while the monsoon trough remains active in the region. ※ Next MJO Update : Jan 20 ※ ~~~~~ °° Winds:1 kts = 1.852 kph ■ Satellite Imagery: NRL & NOAA Satellite. ■ Category/Intensity from World Meteorological Organization. ■ Coordinates, Movements, Wind Speed from NOAA. ■ Invest System info from NRL. ■ Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) Update from NOAA-ESRL. ■ Other Weather System from CIMSS. © philweathersystem.weebly/
Posted on: Wed, 14 Jan 2015 05:41:56 +0000
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