WEEK 11 Bye week: Ravens, Cowboys, Jaguars, Jets Confidence: >>> Broncos, Chargers, Steelers >> Browns, Washington > Dolphins, Saints, 49ers = Bears, Seahawks, Falcons, Lions, Packers, Patriots Spread underdogs: Vikings +3, Seahawks +1.5, Falcons +1.5$, Rams +9$, Giants +3.5$, Raiders +10.5$, Lions +2$, Eagles +5.5$, Patriots +3$ Moneyline overlays: Vikings +146, Seahawks +111, Falcons +106, Bengals +281, Raiders +476, Lions +110, Eagles +214, Patriots +146, Steelers -230 Eliminator recommendations: Steelers*, Broncos DOLPHINS ($) > Bills: The Bills spanked the Dolphins in Week 1 but a lot has changed since then. This time were in Miami, most of the team is healthy, and Tannehill nearly took down a brutal Lions defense. The Bills are just not consistent and rely on opponents mistakes to win. Dolphins should cover. BEARS = Vikings (M+): The Bears looked decent for a while, but injuries and uninspired play have led to a disappointing season. Meanwhile, the Vikings are playing better than you might expect them to play. I think the Bears have a razor-thin edge straight up, but you should take overlays on the Vikings elsewhere. BROWNS (+) >> Texans: The Browns are on fire lately and a gimpy Foster isnt going to help the Texans compensate. No betting because both these teams are inconsistent. SEAHAWKS (M+) = Chiefs: For the first time this season the Seahawks are the underdogs. I think this game is really a toss-up. KC has a brutal pass rush but are questionable in the secondary. Meanwhile the Seahawks pass rush is improving and its secondary is #1 in the league. I think the Seahawks get the slight edge because of Wilsons mobility and Lynch is still effective against elite defenses. It will be a face-smashing low-scoring affair. Unless it snows then all bets are off. FALCONS (M$) = Panthers: The Panthers are a complete mess, and this is the Falcons chance to roll them. But who the hell knows, really? SAINTS (+) > Bengals (M): If the Saints cant take care of business against the Bengals depleted defense I dont know what. … But really, theres little basis on which to put a lot of confidence on the Saints in any game. Hence I think the Bengals moneyline is a great bet. WASHINGTON ($) >> Buccaneers: As badly as the DC team has been playing lately I dont think theyre going to fail against the Bucs. But RG3s lack of rigor raises a few doubts. BRONCOS (E) >>> Rams ($): The Rams will test them but the Broncos lose this game approximately 0% of the time. Still I think theres a 55% chance the Rams will stay within 9. 49ERS > Giants ($): The Niners will usually win a game like this but theyll always win it ugly. Hence the spread bet. +171 isnt quite attractive enough to take the Giants straight up, but +200 would be. CHARGERS >>> Raiders (M$): The 2014 Chargers are the very definition of overrated. But theyre still not losing to the Raiders. Probably. Once again, you should take some underdog value here, itll pay off eventually. LIONS (M$) = Cardinals: Stantons luck is probably going to run out against the Lions, but the Cardinals always seem to find a way to win even under ridiculous circumstances. A toss-up, really, but Lions are pseudo-underdogs so theres value. PACKERS = Eagles (M$): The Eagles defense is really good at forcing mistakes, but its likely the Packers line will hold them off. Still, its not as likely as everyone thinks. 5.5 points and +214 is stupid good value. PATRIOTS (M$) = Colts: A lot of square money is going on the Colts this week. This has created a lot of betting value on the Patriots, who are underrated in this matchup. Still, I think its really a toss-up. STEELERS (EM$) >>> Titans: The only favorite moneyline overlay of the week. Pittsburgh will smash to avoid fatal embarrassment.
Posted on: Thu, 13 Nov 2014 18:38:56 +0000
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