WHEN Ebola was at its worst in west Africa a few months ago, many worried that weak governments in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone might be swept away by riots or the collapse of order as the virus took hold. In fact, the opposite appears to be the case. Governments have tightened their grip and are displaying authoritarian inclinations in ways rarely seen in the three young democracies. Sierra Leone announced on December 17th that it would conduct house-to-house searches in Freetown, the capital, to find hidden Ebola sufferers. The president, Ernest Bai Koroma, also banned all public Christmas celebrations as well as some market trading and travel between regions. Yet restrictions on movement and trading have been counter-productive. When food is in short supply, hungry and potentially infected people evade checkpoints and travel long distances to feed themselves. Advertisement Other civil liberties are also being curtailed. A Sierra Leonean journalist has been arrested after criticising the government. Officials accused him of making “disparaging and inflammatory statements” about its anti-viral work. In Liberia restrictions on public gatherings remain in place, despite the government’s decision in November not to extend a state of emergency. During senatorial elections—moved from October 12th to December 16th—campaign events and transport to polling stations had to comply with new safety regulations. Queuing voters had to stand three feet apart and bring their own pens, restrictions that did little to encourage a high turnout. Nor did a ban on political rallies that was lifted by the supreme court only after candidates objected. Across the region, rulers are accused of trying to gain political advantage from the epidemic by directing international aid toward their support bases. In Guinea the opposition has cried foul over the delay of municipal elections and perhaps even presidential elections in 2015. Although the country has had more success in fighting the virus than its two neighbours have, occasional bouts of violence have been a problem. The Guinean military took over a town near Wombe where health workers had been killed; some of them were found dismembered in septic tanks. The soldiers are said to have taken revenge and villagers to have fled into the bush. Violent outbreaks have also occurred in Liberia—where security forces fired on people protesting against a quarantine imposed on part of the capital—and in Sierra Leone—where police cracked down in the eastern city of Koidu after rioting The disease, meanwhile, continues to spread. In the week to December 21st, Guinea experienced its highest incidence of the virus since the outbreak began (see chart). In Liberia dozens of new cases have been reported along the border with Sierra Leone. Despite these setbacks officials and observers are starting to contemplate the challenges that will face the region once the illness has been tamed. Chief among them will be getting children back to schools that have been closed for months and are unlikely to open soon. In the meantime families are getting used to having children at home. Girls are doing more housework and boys are being pushed to earn money. Teachers fear that when schools reopen parents will be reluctant to send their children back. Some speak of a lost Ebola cohort of teenagers who may never return to school. Economies are struggling, too. Few ships or planes arrive. Expatriate workers and the educated elite have mostly fled. Imported industrial equipment idles in port. Shipping containers gather rust. About half of all Liberians who had formal jobs have lost them. The misery is heightened by the fall in commodity prices. Prices for the oil and iron ore that are exported from the region have plunged. r Public finances are being strained. In responding to the crisis the spending by all three affected governments has gone up by about 30%. At the same time revenues have fallen as a result of the slowdown in trade and tourism. Infrastructure development, such as road-building, has been postponed. The IMF and World Bank have had to step in with financial aid packages. The drop in household incomes is estimated to be 35% in Liberia, 30% in Sierra Leone and 13% in Guinea. Still, the economic impact is not as bad as some had feared. Worst-case forecasts by the World Bank estimated that Ebola could cost the region as much as $32 billion if it were allowed to spiral out of control. Efforts at containing it mean the real cost will probably be a tenth of that figure. Trade is slowly coming back. Some land borders have been reopened, albeit some only for lorries rather than cars or pedestrians. One positive legacy may be improved health-care systems in countries that generally fare poorly on measures such as infant mortality and life expectancy (see chart). In the short run, deaths from preventable diseases are likely to increase. Vaccination programmes have collapsed and overwhelmed hospitals have been turning away pregnant women and those sick with malaria and other illnesses. Yet billions of dollars have been lined up to boost hospitals and training in ways that will reach far beyond Ebola. Much of this money is being allocated on the assumption that weak health systems, even in remote countries, can exacerbate the risks of a global pandemic. According to Thomas Frieden, the director of Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, America’s national public-health agency: “There is an urgent need to reinforce basic public-health systems in countries such as those in west Africa where disease threats can quickly arise and ultimately threaten the health of Americans.” The three worst-affected countries have averted catastrophic collapse, even if they still face a long convalescence. The pluralistic institutions of their young democracies seem so far to be holding up. Yet they are threatened by the continuation of draconian and authoritarian policies. The erosion of democracy might yet turn out to be a cure as bad as the disease. economist/news/middle-east-and-africa/21637391-virus-will-have-long-lasting-impact-already-poor-countries-after
Posted on: Mon, 05 Jan 2015 16:58:54 +0000
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