WINTER WEATHER UPDATE AND MODEL DISCUSSION FROM QUAGMIRE WEATHER CENTRAL MONDAY JANUARY 19, 2015 6:30 PM THIS IS MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY AND NOT A FORECAST MODEL TREND OR MORE MODEL MAYHEM AHEAD? The Monday 12Z Models bring brought back the East Coast Low for Friday afternoon into early Saturday afternoon with another potential event on its heels for Monday PM/Tuesday. HOWEVER IS THIS A TREND DEVELOPING OR WILL THE MODELS FLOP AGAIN? Yes, I saw the 12z model runs and some Weenies are building a case that there is a definitive trend now in that the models are bringing back the winter weather potential for this coming weekend (Friday PM-Saturday) with the coastal Low that develops along the Gulf Coast and moves towards the Outer Banks then off shore by the VA Capes by Saturday afternoon. BUT I AM NOT GOING TO JUMP IN AND SAY “GAME ON” YET. Here’s what the models from Monday afternoon depicted…We have 3 systems that could impact the Mid-Atlantic region over the next 7-8 days and if…I SAID IF…the models are indeed finally latching onto the idea that this “pattern change” is going to really occur this time, then the chances of seeing more winter weather activity COULD I SAID COULD be better coming up. Here’s what could be in our future: 1. A weak “Alberta Clipper” system will move southeast from the Midwest on Tuesday afternoon late and move across the Mid-Atlantic region early Wednesday. This system will be weak and should stay north of VA keeping us in the warmer air bringing a slight chance of rain showers with some flurries in the mountains. The only possibility of accumulating snow will be north of Virginia. Behind the Clipper, temperatures will turn colder on Thursday and Friday on the northwesterly fetch of winds. 2. Friday Night/Saturday Event does bear watching and is gaining more support with a north and west trend but the question is how long will this trend continue and what happens to it from here on. This potential system is gaining strength and could bring a wintry mix or snow to inland regions of Virginia & North Carolina with a rain/mix possible along the I-95 corridor and points east. The rain/snow may not make it to DC but that could change. 3. MONDAY/TUESDAY...THIS COULD BE THE ONE THAT WILL CATCH US OFF GUARD. After looking over the GFS and European Ensembles today, the late Monday/Tuesday event COULD BE the strongest of these 3 events. This potential event will start out as an upper level Vortice (ULL) that will move SE out of Canada on the Northern Pacific Jet Stream and will move thru the Ohio/Tennessee River Valley region on Monday and attempt to transfer its energy into a coastal Low that may develop along the Carolinas Coast or off the Virginia Capes and maybe move up the Eastern Seaboard. This system is also known as a “Miller B” System. This system could phase with a combination of Gulf of Mexico moisture and weak upper energy with the Sub Tropical Jet Stream. This event is showing up much better on the Ensembles than in the operational runs. So what sticks out about today’s 12z model runs? 1. Model Consistency. All of the major models have all 3 systems but vary in their solution which is normal. However, I saw the European model of days past and was the most bullish. This is about the 3rd run to where there has been an ever so slight hint that the weekend snow potential may come back and the Monday 12z European Ensembles brought it back with even greater confidence. 2. Colder temperatures ahead but not until the weekend. The temperatures for Saturday’s possible event are marginal and are on the warm side for snow. The Saturday event will pull colder air down and if that colder air can hang on, then the Monday/Tuesday event could be more favorable for wintry precipitation. Next week, the cold air will definitely be in place behind the 3rd event. 3. The models came back with these events and we are now less than 5 days out from the weekend event and this was a quick change in the trends. However, the upper air pattern is going to favor a more southerly or “out to sea” track and the Northeast may not see anything from these events except for the Wednesday Clipper. Sorry Northeast Weenies, but I don’t see a Noreaster just yet or a Low that moves near Cape Cod or the 40/70 Benchmark that you guys want so bad. However, the Monday/Tuesday system COULD come more north. 4. There is FINALLY SOME TELE CONNECTION SUPPORT EXCEPT FOR THE NAO. The MJO is currently at a weak Phase 8 which is what you want in January and February for any Eastern US wintry precipitation. However, the ever so missing North Atlantic Oscillation is nowhere to be found in helping to block the upper air pattern over Eastern Canada and the North Atlantic. FYI, the MJO is forecast to go back into the Circle of Death in about 10-15 days. So this is a great window of opportunity ahead. I will not at this point go into any specifics about how much snow is going to fall in your back yard but I will go on record and say that this is the best the models have looked for the Mid-Atlantic region to see significant East Coast Snow events in quite some time. So let’s watch the models and see what happens. -Quags below images courtesy of Brad Panovich and tropicaltidbits
Posted on: Tue, 20 Jan 2015 00:41:07 +0000
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