WTPA43 PHFO 091441 TCDCP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013 500 AM HST FRI AUG 09 2013 NEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE PREVIOUSLY PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER OF HENRIETTE...AND A POORLY-DEVELOPED BANDING EYE FEATURE IS OBSERVED IN LATEST INFRARED IMAGES. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING WEAKENING TREND...WITH A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITIES YIELDING 3.5/55 KT. WITH A SOMEWHAT IMPROVED SATELLITE REPRESENTATION SINCE FIXES WERE DONE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET TO 60 KT...AND HENRIETTE IS NOW DEEMED TO BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/11 KT...AS HENRIETTE MADE A RATHER SHARP TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENTLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...INDICATING A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE A MUCH WEAKENED SYSTEM MAKES A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WITH THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST OCCURRING AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE WELL-PERFORMING MULTI-MODEL TVCE CONSENSUS...AND INDICATES A BIT OF ACCELERATION IN THE SHORT TERM. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES HENRIETTE OVER INCREASINGLY WARMER WATERS...THE DELETERIOUS EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT AND INCREASING SHEAR ON THIS TINY TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID IVCN...BUT HOLDS OFF DISSIPATION UNTIL 96 HOURS...WHEREAS LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 15.9N 142.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 15.2N 144.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 14.4N 146.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 13.8N 149.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 13.5N 153.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 13.0N 160.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Fri, 09 Aug 2013 14:41:39 +0000
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