Waiting For Lefty by Edward Eastwood Tony Abbotts days as leader of the Coalition are numbered. Whether or not he takes the LNP down with him remains to be seen. This weeks Senate debacle was simply another of a long line marked by inept leadership which rests on a conceit that the government has carte blanche to mold Australian society in their own image without opposition or accountability. It is not the failure of Abbotts efforts to rush the repeal of the Carbon Tax through the Senate, nor is it the governments inhumane treatment of asylum seekers and the arrogance of the Minister for Immigration Scott Morrison in refusing to reveal information for operational reasons that has driven the final nail in the coffin of Abbotts leadership, although these have certainly been deciding factors in the mind of the Australian public. The deciding blow fell far more quietly when a panel of leading economists who took part in Business Days mid-year survey rejected the governments claims of a budget emergency with former chief economist of ANZ and now senior economist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch Saul Eslake, labelling the governments claims as an abuse of the English language. Eslake was not alone in his condemnation. Chris Caton from BT Financial dismissed the claims as; Simply absurd. Those who took part in the survey ranged from market economists, academics, consultants, industry and unions. Opinions varied but most like AMP Capitals Shane Oliver, agreed that Australia was not facing a budget or public debt crisis. While the governments claims of a budget emergency had been challenged even before it was delivered by the Treasurer in May, the added weight of the doyens of the dollar such as Eslake and Caton, and academics such as Mitchell and Madsen, have effectively sunk any remaining credibility of what Abbott had hoped to be the showpiece of the LNPs reforms. Faced with the combination of a hostile Senate led by the unpredictable cross-benches, and plummeting polls that reflect the electorates dissatisfaction - if not outright loathing of the government and its ministers - the LNP now faces a number of choices - none of them palatable. In the first instance, the government can back down and attempt to negotiate with the cross benches to pass its bills. In the face of Abbotts statements that he would not negotiate with independents or minor parties, the back down would leave the LNP humiliated in the extreme, and effectively neutered in the eyes of the electorate. In the second instance, the LNP could replace Abbott as leader, modify the budget and attempt to win over the cross benches with a consensual approach. Once again, this may prove embarrassing but much less humiliating and may serve to shore up electoral support in order to stave off the very real possibility of becoming a one term government. The third option carries far more risk. Abbott can declare a double dissolution, claiming an obstructionist Senate is preventing governance and take his budget policies to the electorate in the hope that the Murdoch machine and to a lesser degree Fairfax, will throw their weight behind his claims. This can only be done however, if the Senate rejects the Carbon Tax repeal bill for a second time. The double dissolution option is unlikely due to the fact that it requires both the House of Reps and the Senate seats to be declared open for contest. Neither Abbott nor Palmer want to risk this occurring. Abbott for fear of losing the LNPs majority in the lower House, and Palmer for losing his leverage in the Senate. What is likely, is that the repeal will be passed with the amendments demanded by PUP. If not, then despite Minister for the Environmen Greg Hunts posturing, its a fairly safe bet that the government will shelve the repeal in an humiliating climb down, and attempt to justify this as bowing to the will of the people rather than face an election. Whatever the outcome next week, the results do not bode well for Abbott and his hold on the leadership of the LNP. The father of modern political strategy Niccolo Machiavelli, observed that if you find your enemy waist deep in a mire then it is prudent to lend aid in helping him freeing himself. If however, your enemy is up to his neck then it is good sense to push him under. Abbott is not yet up to his neck in the mire but hes certainly up past his waist, and while the ALP have largely remained silent and content to give the Coalition enough rope to hang themselves, the time for action draws nigh. Since coming to office, there have been few Coalition governments that have galvanized the Left, and indeed most of the moderate Right in the way which the Abbott government has. From its inept and post-Colonial attitudes to foreign policy, its secretive and inhumane treatment of asylum seekers, to its utter determination to create a poorly educated underclass in order to create a market driven economy, the Abbott government has been able to alienate Australians in a manner unlike any government before it. This has resulted in the majority of voters now waiting for Lefty - a political party whose premises rest on social justice and the entrenched Australian notion of a fair go for all coupled with intelligent approach to climate change. In the past, this role has largely fallen to the Labor Party with the Greens as a second preference. Over the last two decades however, the ALP has steadily become almost barely distinguishable from its conservative counterpart. Much of this shift can be traced to its abandonment of a commitment to full employment and embracing supply side economic theory over the Keynesian applications that had served as the central plank of its policies for nearly four decades. The current situation enables the ALP to re-invent itself as a revitalized and credible alternative to the execrable policies of the Coalitions Neo-liberalism agenda. While there are many fronts that afford the Labor party an opportunity to do this, the primary concerns should be focused on rejecting supply side economics in favour of post-Keynesian economics in order to stimulate the economy by a return to full employment coupled with a determination to fully fund the public education system. Other initiatives should include a humane approach to asylum seekers under the UN guidelines, and perhaps the most important issue that faces us all - climate change - should take the highest priority. Rarely is an opposition party afforded the opportunity which lies before them at the moment. With a government in disarray and its leaders credibility in tatters, the ALPs best strategy is to carpe deim and take the fight to the enemy while at the same time clearly delineating themselves as a viable political alternative to Neo-liberalism and not simply as the modified version which has plagued them for the past two decades and resulted in a shift of voter preference to the Greens or minor parties. A total rejection of Chicago School Theory and an embrace of post-Keynesian economics would the most positive step that the ALP could take to cement its reputation as a Party dedicated to progressive political change on the behalf of the community as a whole and not simply as a slightly different version of a tool to serve corporate greed In the main, it can be argued that the bulk of Australian voters are counting the days until the demise of the Coalition as government, or at the very least, the demise of Tony Abbott as leader. In the wake of the Marches that are becoming more frequent and attracting larger sections of the community, the time grows ripe for the emergence of a new Left; one that is focused on social justice as its raison detre. Its crystal clear that most of the Australian electorate are now waiting for Lefty. Lets hope that were not keep waiting much longer. theaimn/waiting-lefty/
Posted on: Sun, 13 Jul 2014 09:05:54 +0000
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