*Warning...long post* There has been lots of questions regarding the upcoming winter forecast. I wanted to throw out the research we have looked at up to this point. It is still a little early in the winter forecast process. We still don’t know how and where the snow pack will build and grow in Canada during late October into early December. That is one ingredient that shows us where, and how intense the arctic air will become early in the season. Clearly there are unknowns yet, there always are in long range and short term forecasts alike. However, there are concrete trends that are showing up with the global weather patterns that will likely impact the winter season heavily. I am sure you have heard the term before, but El Nino is returning for this winter season. Normally a moderate or strong El Nino provides the Great Lakes with its warmest and driest winters, however this El Nino is not your typical set up. It is a weak El Nino and the core of the warm water in the equatorial Pacific region is in the middle of the Pacific instead near the South American coast. This is significant for two reasons. The first is that a weak El Nino means there is typically more ups and downs through the winter season. It also backs up the area of dry weather a little west (western Great Lakes area). The shift in warm ocean water means the ridge will also be shifted west. In other words, a strong ridge could once again develop over the western part of the United States. This dislodges the arctic air out of western Canada and Alaska and sends it south into the Midwest through the southeast part of the country. This pattern has set up many times in the past. So tonight I went back and looked at those years, and looked at the winter to see how it played out. The results are below. Since 1960 there has been 6 winter seasons that have had a close match with the expected winter pattern coming up for this winter season. Here is how things played out. Overall – The winters were harsh overall with colder than normal temperatures, overall precipitation was near average to slightly drier than average. Yet seasonal snowfall was near average to slightly above normal. Each of the 6 winter seasons produced at least one snowstorm of 6” or more (each storm produced a snowfall in the 7-14” range). 3 of the seasons produced 1 snowstorm of 6”+. The other 3 seasons produced 2 snowstorms of 6”+. *Note last winter we had 5 snowstorms of 6”+ and temperatures averaged 7.3 degrees below average. The winter seasons I looked at had 1-2 storms with 6”+ and most of the years were about 2-5 degrees below normal. While this winter may not be a cake walk, I still think it is highly unlikely we will see a winter as bad as or worse than last year. Statistically speaking last winter was very rare shattering record after record. December – Temperatures were near average to slightly cooler than average overall, precipitation was around average January – Temperatures were significantly colder than average with average precipitation. February – Temperatures were significantly colder than average with below average precipitation. The storm track shifted well to the south and east during previous years. Spring – There wasn’t any obvious trend on rainfall, but temperatures in April and May were much warmer than average. Perhaps this is a sign that regardless of the winter season, the cold weather won’t linger deep into spring. Summer – The weather patterns could very well shift completely by next summer, but in the past the following summer turned hot and stormy which is completely different than the past few years. Of course history is just one part of the winter forecast puzzle. Computer models are another part. Right now several of the long range computer models are also echoing the colder than average winter season. However, there are a few others that have a completely different take on the upcoming winter season. History doesn’t necessarily have to repeat itself, but many times it is similar and that is why we look back. In the mean time we still have lots of fall to enjoy yet. While it is cold and wet now, October will turn warm and dry later this month.
Posted on: Sun, 05 Oct 2014 02:41:07 +0000
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