Watching the Middle East descend further into anarchy and destruction, I recalled this piece I wrote for Open Democracy in late 2011 -- a time when regional experts in London were still convinced that the fall of Assad was imminent, warnings of a jihadi threat and sectarian strife were bogus, and the Arab Spring was in full swing. So very sad to see that we are way past the brink and are now staring into the abyss... To be sure, any armed conflict between these actors would quickly spill beyond the borders of the main belligerents. With their fragile political systems and sensitive sectarian divides, the first to get sucked in would be Lebanon (where Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah made his first public appearance in years to defy the enemies of Damascus) and Iraq (where the Iraqi al-Qaeda recently declared its support for the Syrian ‘jihad’). Judging by the latest sectarian attacks, Afghanistan might follow. In the long term, a regional war would have profound socio-political and human consequences beyond the region, especially in the west, not least in the shape of mass immigration, refugees and terrorism. [...] Let us make no mistake: this is not a struggle between freedom and tyranny. The Arab spring of pro-democracy protestors and authoritarian rulers is effectively over. That popular outcry for a better, fairer and more honourable human living is being stifled in a ruthless struggle for geopolitical hegemony and survival, played out along increasingly explosive sectarian lines. And as the elephants trample, once again the grass suffers.
Posted on: Tue, 12 Aug 2014 20:38:56 +0000
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