Wave, No Wave? You Decide Left Fascist Mafia can no longer dictate terms and force his/her views on the masses. Yesterday in ABP news 1 Commie journo and possibly a Congress boot licker was shouting and crying loud. His frustration was obvious. He said that despite BJP projected to win 240+ seats as per that channel this should not be counted as Modi/BJP wave because in a wave elections 1 party wins 400+ seats. Earlier people would have believed him but now with the advent of Alternate Media, and the cognizance of the fact that these journo are plain graduates and their views are no more better than an average mind, often marred with payments (both in cash and in kind) he/she receives. I would give example with scenarios of some wave elections and one can compare it with 2014 and decide the truth than depending on these Intellectual Mafia. 1. 1971 – Congress jumped from 283 seats to 352 and 40% votes to 44% votes. This was Indira wave. 1 thing to note that India had moved from a 1 party system in 1947 to 1-many (1 dominant national party with many regional parties, not stretched enough to challenge the NP beyond a limited geography) 2. 1984 – Congress tally crossed 400 and reached 415 from a base of 353 and up from 43% votes to 48%. This was Rajiv Gandhi wave after Indira’s death. Once again the scenario between current and previous elections didn’t change drastically. It was a one dominant party against many weak parties limited to certain geographies 3. 1996 – BJP had got 120 seats and a huge 20% votes in 1991. Their tally reached 161 with a 20% votes in 1996. SO not much increase in vote share albeit a significant increase in seats (1989 vote share of BJP was 11%) If we observe the above 3 examples, we get that in all the wave elections the no. of seats have increased anywhere between 20% to 33% and Vote share increase has been 10% at best (not adding the near 75% increase in 1991 compared to 1989 of the BJP due to low base). Also the organizational strength of the these parties in 2 different elections under study has remained static. Only thing that has triggered the wave is personality of the PM candidate, Indira, Rajiv and Vajpayee. In 2014, BJP is expected to get vote share between 30% to 38%( an increase of 66.5% to 110%) while the seats tally jump from 116 to 221 to 291 taking the best and worst exit poll figures, ignoring Times Now as news has come that it was done by a fraud agency. This makes an increase of 92% to 153% in seats tally. So both votes and seats have increased much higher than the highest ever increase in any of the wave elections before. Now reading this you decide if there is a Modi/BJP wave or not Note: Discounting the regional parties as a party can get votes share from 1% to 4% and seats from 2 to 20 in consecutive elections. Only parties with high base (atleast 100 Lok Sabha seats) has been considered.
Posted on: Tue, 13 May 2014 10:02:17 +0000
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