We Shall Rise Again September floods cost Kashmir loss to its Public Utility Services at Rs 3,000 crore; loss to its crops at Rs 4043 crore; loss to its Horticulture at Rs 1568 crore. The total loss that we suffered stands at a staggering 1,00,000 crore. Moreover, 280 precious lives were lost in the devastating flood fury. Almost none of the backbones of our economy; be it Agriculture and Allied sector, Horticulture, Tourism, Industry; remained untouched and unaffected by the deluge. Losses suffered are massive, unforgettable and irreparable. Our economy has faced lethal gusts of loss that would continue to haunt our hearts for decades or even centuries to come. Having said this, it becomes necessary that Kashmir Economy be rebuild from rubble. It must be a combined effort from all sections of society that may go a long way forward in rebuilding the economy of this paradise back to its unmatched and unparalleled glory and charisma. Some of the Economic principles, Tax policies, Banking reforms, International Intervention and local efforts together would hopefully achieve this endeavour. Before we discuss these guidelines, lets briefly examine the Natural Disaster Timeline. According to the authorities on the subject, a Natural Disaster Timeline must be identified and analysed so as to devise a scientific approach towards rebuilding. It goes like this: Period 1) Actual loss to the assets; Period 2) Loss/reduction in the output, and, Period 3) Rebuilding Efforts. Further, the losses may take place in the value of the Asset or in the income that it generates. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, in this connection says, Replacing some obsolete Assets may give rise to newer technologies and increased output. The positive signal that it sends is that damages to traditional and obsolete infrastructure or machinery may compel people to replace them and when they do, theyll have to install technologically contemporary and sound stuff. This may lead to the achievement of such a change that would have otherwise been resisted for long. The Fed document further says, Recovery further depends upon the previous (pre-flood in Kashmir scenario) business cycle and the situation of the economy. Prof. Dost Muhammad, a noted Economist of Kashmir Valley and former Dean, School of Management Studies, BGSB University, says, The Economic Recovery also depends upon the Economic Growth Pattern that a particular place has been going through during the recent past. Kashmir had been improving and a constant Economic Growth Pattern has been observed during the last few years owing to its priceless natural resources and unmatched resolve. The economic self-reliance and prosperity that the Valley had been enjoying for the last few years, comes as a relief as it ensures that the economic recovery after floods will be, hopefully, directly proportional to the economic prosperity in the pre-flood time and that it would be speedy. Having presented these thoughts, lets discuss some of the recommendations and guidelines that may be moulded suitably so as to make them suitable for the mission of economic rebuilding. 1) Correct Damage and Loss Assessment: The damage and loss assessment at the time of the disaster tends to be unreal, overstated and worrisome. This is natural. At the time of the flood fury, small damages seem big and rumours add to the chaos. For example, in Hurricane Andrew, a recent Great Flood, the damages and losses estimated stood at $ 30 billion which was found almost double of the final actual figure. Prof. Dost Muhammad supports this fact and emphasizes the need for a correct estimation of the damage, The growth figures that have been coming from various agencies such as the Civil Society points out Dost, are varied. We need to reach at a correct figure so as to chalk out perfect programmes. Although, damages were heavy but still a practical estimation is necessary before we carve out strategies to rebuild the rubble. The Post-flood early recovery Need Assessment Report of Kingdom of Cambodia Nation Religion King, in this connection mentions, The damage and loss assessment and reconstruction must follow the following stepwise process: i) Sector by Sector Analysis, ii) Aggregation of Results, iii) Impact Analysis (Macro and Personal), iv) Needs Estimation, and v) Recovery Reconstruction. Similarly, the detailed documentary report namely Disaster Planning for Economic Recovery published under the aegis of restore your economy.org supports this argument, Conducting a post-disaster economic impact study, study of the physical damage to property and abrupt depreciation in its value, infrastructure damage, etc is of first and foremost importance. Therefore, a real, true and correct figure must be obtained so as to get a clear picture of the damage and chalk out suitable strategies. 2) Local Allocation and Use of Idle Money Kashmiris have huge deposits of money lying idle in Banks outside Valley. Although, these deposits of money are not black or suspicious, yet, their absence from Valley is something to worry about. Huge amount of money is lying idle in banks outside state that belongs to high-profile merchants and businessmen says Prof. Dost. The problem with this money is that its not put to any beneficial use locally. Banks lend this money to corporate giants outside state and nothing on ground comes up in Valley. Valleys money is used by non-Valleyites. The need of the hour is to devise such robust Entrepreneurship Programmes that the Valleyites find borrowing investing within Valley, promising. Prof. Dost Muhammad, in this connection adds, Unbelievably huge deposits of money if borrowed by locals may prove amazingly beneficial in the long-run economic growth and rebuilding if the current entrepreneurship setup is revived and overhauled. 3) Reviving the old Gospel of Economics of Mir Syed Ali Hamdani (RA): The revered preacher and traveller, Mir Hamdani (RA) had brought with him Islam and some priceless economic gifts for the people of Kashmir. During those bright days, the indigenous crafts of Kashmir reached the pinnacle of success and sheen. Shawl-making, especially Pashmina Shawl, carpet manufacturing, pottery, calligraphy, handicrafts, etc, etc had become our identity and the pillars of our economic self-dependence. These sectors were a complete industry. But, alas, we left these sectors and, consequently, now only a small number of people adopt and adore these arts and crafts. The art of wood carving and traditional architecture made us stand out. The wooden engravings at Khanqah-e-Moula is a mix of central Asian and Kashmiri architecture that still appeals to the eye. The treatises on political ethics, economics and rules for good governance by Hamdani, for example Zakhiraat-ul-Muluk, can still open our eyes and lead us to unmatched economic position. The revival of the old gospel of economics by Hamdani and our traditional art and craft may help in rebuilding our economy. However, they need to be moulded to the current requirements. Robust and professional marketing and promotion of these crafts may prove to be fulfilling the gap. Similarly, promoting the crafts to international prospective buyers and the use of newest marketing and sales platforms, like sales websites/e-marketing may prove magical. 4) Relaxation in Taxes: When Queensland was hit by a devastating natural disaster, the people were given Tax Holidays. The business establishments were given this freedom that they were given time wherein they didnt have to pay taxes. Although, government has introduced miniscule Tax relaxations to Kashmir Inc, yet, being one of highest tax payer regions, Kashmir should be extended maximum Tax relaxations to, in the form of Tax Holidays, etc. Similarly, entry taxes, etc must be abolished for the time being keeping in view the essential requirement of some goods that may be brought from outside. 5) Contribution from Banking and Micro-finance Institutes: The biggest contribution that may come from the Banks at this point of time is providing Loan Restructuring facilities wherein, Repayment Holidays may be extended to the borrower. Technically, its known as Restructuring to modify Moratorium Period. Here, borrowers are asked not to pay their installments for a period of time, say a year or two. Meanwhile, the borrower may catch up with the loss and his inability to continue the repayment. The role of RRBs (Regional Rural Banks) becomes all the more important. Its for them that they provide easy credit to the priority sector and, hand in hand, extend Agri Repairment loans and extend Agri Extension Services to the affected. Microfinancial Institutions, at this point of time, may come forward with the facilities of providing credit to the poorest of the poor affected by the floods. Similarly, govt controlled bodies, Rural Development bodies, Industrial development organisations like SIDBI, NABARD, SICOP, etc must join hands with banks to revive the industrial and manufacturing units that turned Sick as a result of the deluge. 6) Temporary Halt in various Infra and other Projects: The devastating deluge has left our economy shattered upto such a massive scale that the importance and urgency of other ongoing or proposed developmental projects like Infrastructure Projects viz new roads, fly-overs, etc, have became very low. Right now, we dont need fly-overs and elections that add to the disturbance and chaos that have already piled up. Its very unfortunate that our government is worried about the elections; politicians are busy in their election campaigns while common man suffers. None of their activities comes as a relief but they come as sufferings and problems. On contrary, they must have focused on the economic recovery rather than spending huge money on elections. Its for the authorities to understand that urgency, importance and priorities have changed due to the floods. Our plans must change accordingly. Focus must be shifted from Infra and political projects towards rebuilding Kashmir. 7) Prevention of Inflationary Situation: After such a lethal deluge, shortage of food materials: foodgrains, vegetables, etc, is the most likely. At this point of time, the unmatched sense of volunteerism and selfless contribution and unity that weve been showing for centuries, becomes necessary. Supply of food materials and vegetables from rural areas to urban areas at low prices should be paved ways for. This is not impossible; weve shown this during the floods. This will prevent unscrupulous elements from illegal storage and raising the prices and, consequently, prevent Food Inflation from happening. At the same time, govt authorities need to have a sharp vigil over black marketing and other unscrupulous marketing activities. This is exactly what the Demand-Supply equilibrium Principle of Economics postulates. 8) International Aid: A large number of NGOs and world welfare organisations such as The World Bank, ADB (Asian Development Bank) can send incredibly huge supplies to Valley. A number of Muslim nations are ready to extend helping hands to Kashmir. International Aid must be allowed to enter the Valley. India must encourage easy facilitation of such an aid and not obstruct the same. 9) PPP Model of Economic Rebuilding: PPP (Public-Private Partnership) models have been put to use in various countries across the globe, for example Queensland Floods, to tackle long-run emergency situations post disaster. Closing the Financial Gap: New Partnerships Between the Public and Private Sectors to Finance Disaster Risks, a publication from SwissRe, an international reinsurance and financial services group, has published a detailed report on how PPP models can be put to use in the rebuilding efforts especially in the uninsured sectors of the developing countries. FEMA, an institution under US Homeland Security organisation, supports this fact, Many states and other jurisdictions are actively entering into public-private partnerships to improve their capabilities in emergency management. In addition to participating in partnerships directly, public and private sector organizations can help bolster the nation’s preparedness in other ways. An effective PPP programme may be initiated with the help of govt and willing private organisations or a consortium of corporate entities to work in this direction. Its for the private sector big players to take a step forward in this direction, as a part of their CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility) initiative.
Posted on: Mon, 08 Dec 2014 04:09:05 +0000
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