We asked Ken Long, Ph.D., professor of History and Political Science, chair of History and Political Science department, about the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Our Q&A is below: Q. Russian troops claimed to be conducting military excises when they entered Georgia in 2008 and Crimea this month. Now, Russian troops are seen amassing on the Eastern Ukraine border, what is to be made of these actions by the Russians? A. As of today (March 19th) Russian troop concentrations seem focused on consolidation control of Crimea: arresting Ukrainian soldiers in Crimea and taking over military installations. This, in itself, is dangerous. At least one Ukrainian soldier has been killed today and Ukrainian politicians are speaking in alarmed and alarming terms. Q. Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel has been making strong statements that Russia forcefully attempting to alter state borders will not be tolerated. Are we seeing an escalation in region? A. European and American condemnations are accompanied by diplomatic and economic sanctions. Those sanctions, while discernible, are quite tame in comparison to the core issues of national security as Russia is defining them. The west seems to be playing by old Cold War rules: feeling free to initially encourage anti-Russian actions and to complain about Russian aggressions which follow them, but, recognizing this territory as being in a Russian sphere of influence, showing disinclination to do much beyond complaining about such aggressions. In the absence of any western military deterrents, Putin is bound to feel emboldened. The only deterrent he faces in the rest of eastern Ukraine, and it is significant, is demographic: Russians are fewer than a majority everywhere here except Crimea. Ukraine is no match for the Russian army, but the street fighting that might ensue if Russia advances beyond Crimea might be quite intense, even if short-lived. The repression that would follow would be anything but brief. If Putin is sincere in his assurances of having no interest in advancing further, it may be for that reason. Q. What is the significance of the Crimean parliament declaring independence after the referendum this weekend? A. Crimea must be free from Ukraine to be free to join Russia. The speed at which it has taken steps to accomplish both of these moves suggests considerable Russian state orchestration, as did the 97% electoral support for succession in a Crimean population that is at least 35 percent non-Russian.
Posted on: Thu, 20 Mar 2014 13:12:59 +0000
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