We have seen some references to the odds against evolution/abiogenesis aka the Argumentum ad biggus numberus, or the Texas sharpshooter fallacy, where you claim the the end result was what you were aiming at all the time. Always remember that the Argumentum ad biggus numberus is evidence against creation, not for it. Heres why. We get many creationists throwing odds at us. The odds against abiogénesis happening are too great The odds of evolution leading to us are too great, way too great, and in one sense they are correct. IF you stand there at the beginning of the Universe, or the Earth, and say This is all going to lead to this one specified result! then you are correct. The odds are simply too great that we would end up standing here like this. Its a bit like taking a pack of cards, shuffling them, and then predicting exactly what the 52 card sequence will be when you deal them out. The odds against are immense, so great that realistically it is impossible. However, if you merely shuffle and deal, and all that matters is a complete sequence, any sequence, then you will get there first time. This technique of back calculating, fixating on the outcome that is us, and then saying that the odds are too great for it to have occurred are too great, therefore god, is dishonest, but revealing, because it can be turned on its head to demonstrate the improbability of god as something that creates the universe with us in mind. Lets look at this image of the fixated creator, and the odds against his creation coming out just as it has. Firstly let us look at the path he has had to tread. Remeber that at every step, the butterflys wingbeat can disrupt the path and lead it off down other unwanted roads, so each and every tiny step has to be verified by our would be creator. There is to start with the 10 billion year path of the universe that leads to the Earth being where it was. Get one detail of that wrong and the Earth would have ended up in the wrong galaxy even, or instead of a nice safe suburb of the Milky Way, it might have ended up too close to the core, and be bathed in sterilising radiation. Then theres abiogénesis. Exactly the correct amount of the right chemicals have to be selected, and these have to be guided to ensure that the first cell is the desired one to lead all the way to us, the chosen species! Imagine the horror if a lesser species were to arise, thus destroying the divine plan! Then, throughout the ages, supervised evolution would be needed to ensure the proper rise of the correct species, at the right time. Without that hard work, what would have become of the divine plan? Of course there are those who would suggest that this fixated creator cheated by creating the world the universe et al a mere 10,000 years ago, and humans have always been human without the need for further evolution. Well, lets look at the hard work our fixated creator (FC) would still have to go through. Firstly he has to ensure that every single person on that all important bloodline is correctly born, as would have to be all the support people, animals and plants that would allow each person to reach maturity and pair off with the one person that would permit the next in the blood line to be successfully born. This was of course designed to bring about Mary the supposed mother of jesus. She had to be a specific aim of the FC, as it isnt that he could simply have grabbed the nearest female. She was IMPORTANT. She had to have the precise genetic profile to allow the FC to impregnate her so she could give birth to him. So, we have 8,000 years leading up to Mary. Thats about 320 generations, and in each generation there had to be the correct ancestor, otherwise Mary might have ended up black, not Jewish, or even sterile! So, the correct ancestor needed to be selected from the lifetime production of sperm and eggs, so a male will produce some 525 bilion sperm in a life time, and a woman about 300,000 egg cells. So, the odds against anyone being here are 756 x 10 to the power of 16. Multiply that by the 320 generations, and you have about 2.5 x 10 to the power of 21, or 2,500,000,000,000,000,000,000. So, even without having to supervise a whole universe, the FC would have had his work cut out all day every day just to achieve his aim of a jesus.
Posted on: Thu, 27 Mar 2014 10:13:16 +0000
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