We mentioned earlier the possibility of a post-clipper coastal low intensifying and tracking closer to the coast on Monday night. That possibility seems to be increasing. The clipper part of the storm itself is responsible for the lighter snowfall (2-4 south, 1-3 city) that we talked about in our 11:30 post. However, IF this more intensified coastal low that comes out of the clipper takes hold, there could be some pretty decent if not significant snows in parts of the region on Monday night into Tuesday. There was some hinting in modeling last night about this coastal low - more guidance has jumped on board today. The Euro, in particular, goes nuts with a stalled and rather intense low east of the Jersey Shore with quite a bit of snow for North Jersey and Northeast PA. The Canadian and NAM are less aggressive than the Euro but show a pretty decent amount of wrap-around snowfall at the Shore Monday night into Tuesday morning. So, not to confuse people, this whole mess would really be a two-piece storm. Clipper - Monday (mostly morning) with light snows. Thats the 1-3/2-4 stuff. Coastal - Monday night into Tuesday. POTENTIALLY (big bold IF) bigger snows depending on track/intensity/detail. The coastal has a lot more uncertainty to it in a lot of facets - track, speed, how much snow. Given there have couple of model runs from the Euro that showed snow at the Shore and given the additional modeling at midday, figured it was worth the heads up.
Posted on: Sat, 24 Jan 2015 18:45:37 +0000