Weather Update as of 3pm today: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS 305 PM SST MON JAN 6 2014 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BULK OF CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE SAMOAN REGION. AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL TROUGH...OR THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ)...EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST OF SAVAII TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MANUA. THIS WEATHER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE FCST ZONES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THUS...INCREASING RAINFALL AND FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN WAS CENTERED OVER 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO... MOVING NEARLY STATIONARY. ALTHOUGH TC IAN DOES NOT POSE ANY HAZARD TO THE SAMOAN ISLANDS...BUT DEVELOPING SEAS AND SWELLS ARE POSSIBLE IF IAN INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE AREA ARE WIND SPEED AND SHOWER COVERAGE. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER VILLAGES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS. .LONG TERM... .THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE INFAMOUS SPCZ...OR THE MONSOONAL TROUGH NEAR THE SAMOAN ISLANDS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING THURSDAY AND POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING FRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL HINTS AT KEEPING THE SPCZ OVER THE FCST ZONES BEFORE DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL REVAMP THE PREV FCST TO UPDATE THE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KT AND TO REDUCE THE SHOWER COVERAGE TO ISOLATED WORDING STARTING SATURDAY. WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND MAKE NEW UPDATES AS FUTURE MODELS BECOME AVAILABLE. && .MARINE...THE LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE SAMOAN WATERS. HOWEVER...THE ASCAT SWATHE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT JUST EAST OF THE MANUA COASTAL WATERS. THUS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS MANDATORY TO REFLECT THE WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
Posted on: Tue, 07 Jan 2014 06:21:46 +0000
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