Weekend Box Office Forecast: This weekend, moviegoers will have one last chance to see Liam Neeson use his very particular set of skills in the third and final installment in the Taken franchise. While it will almost certainly open well below its predecessor, Taken 3 is still going to easily take first place at the box office this weekend ahead of the holiday holdovers. Meanwhile, civil rights drama Selma expands to over 2,000 theaters after a successful two-week run in limited release. Playing at 3,593 locations, Taken 3 arrives in theaters a little over two years after the second installment, and nearly six years after the first. The original Taken opened to $24.7 million over Super Bowl weekend in 2009, and then held up remarkably well thanks to strong word-of-mouth. It wrapped up its run with $145 million—nearly unprecedented for a January release—and subsequently did strong business on home video. The success of Taken established Neeson as an action star, which is a role hes subsequently played with great success in Unknown, The Grey and Non-Stop. Neeson also returned to the Bryan Mills character in Taken 2, which opened twice as high as its predecessor ($49.5 million) and closed at nearly the same level ($139.9 million). While the final domestic box office for the first two Taken movies was essentially identical, there were two key differences between the movies. On the positive side, Taken 2 earned nearly three times as much at the international box office ($236 million vs. $82 million). Unfortunately, the consensus was that the second installment was significantly worse than the first: the Rotten Tomatoes rating dropped from 58 percent to 21 percent, while the IMDb rating dropped from 7.9 to 6.2. In an effort to prevent a big drop off in box office, Taken 3 is being positioned as the final entry in the franchise: the widely-used tagline It Ends Here spells that out pretty clearly. This is the third time such an approach has been used in the past month following The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies and fellow 20th Century Fox release Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb. It worked well for The Hobbit—which will wind up earning slightly more than its predecessor—but couldnt save Night at the Museum (which was probably going to take a big dip regardless). Aside from the finale angle, Taken 3s marketing has essentially delivered what fans have come to expect from the franchise: plenty of action, along with bit of Neeson acting tough on the phone. Unfortunately, it loses two key elements of the previous movies. First, it doesnt seem like anyone is getting taken this time; this calls to mind The Hangover Part III, which didnt involve a hangover of any kind (and wound up earning less than half as much as its predecessors). Taken 3 also ditches the exotic settings of the last two movies (Paris and Istanbul) in favor of Los Angeles. As a result of these changes, Taken 3 looks more like a generic man-on-the-run thriller than the finale to a career-defining action franchise. 20th Century Fox is hoping for at least $30 million this weekend, which would put Taken 3 above last years Non-Stop ($28.9 million) and in the same general ballpark as The Equalizer ($34.1 million). Anything below $35 million would put the movie on track to earn less than $100 million total. While U.S. moviegoers may be tiring of the Taken franchise, its likely that international demand is still quite high. The last movie earned over $230 million; based on a few strong early openings, $200-million-plus seems like a lock for Taken 3. Playing at 2,179 locations, Selma should wind up in second place this weekend between Taken 3 and the holiday holdovers. Since opening on Christmas Day, the movie has earned $2.2 million in limited release. Marketing for Selma has emphasized the movies strong reaction among critics (100 percent on Rotten Tomatoes with over 100 reviews in), along with its major awards potential (four Golden Globe nominations, including Picture, Director and Actor). From a story perspective, advertisements have leaned toward portraying Selma as a true story drama about the efforts to secure equal voting rights in the South during the 1960s. While thats an accurate representation of the movie, its served to downplay the fact that this is also in many ways a biopic about Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., one of the most important characters in 20th century American history. Strong comparisons can be drawn between Selma and movies like Lee Daniels The Butler ($24.6 million) and The Help ($26 million), which both dealt with a similar era in U.S. history. It would be surprising if Selma opened quite as high as those movies, though. While Oprah has been stumping for the movie, her role here is much smaller than it was in The Butler; likewise, Selma doesnt have the star power or brand awareness that The Help had. Paramount is expecting an opening in the mid-teen-millions, which seems like a fair forecast. After earning $1.55 million in limited release over the past month, writer/director Paul Thomas Andersons Inherent Vice expands to 645 locations this weekend. Andersons last movie, The Master, earned $4.39 million when it expanded wide (788 theaters) back in September 2012. At the time, The Master had a lot working in its favor: it had strong reviews (85 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), strong positioning (there werent any competitive prestige titles in theaters at the time), and an intriguing, controversial premise (the Scientology angle caused quite the stir back then). In those three areas, Inherent Vice doesnt measure up. Reviews are noticeably lower (71 percent), and awards buzz has quieted down significantly. Instead of being the go-to option for discerning moviegoers, Vice faces competition from a slew of titles with heavy awards buzz (Selma, The Imitation Game, Wild, etc.). Finally, the movies stoner detective storyline lacks the must-see factor that The Master had. All things considered, its likely that Inherent Vice earns less than $3 million this weekend. Forecast: 01. Taken 3 - $38.2 million 02. Selma - $11.4 million 03. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies - $9.6 million 04. Into the Woods - $9.1 million 05. Unbroken - $8.5 million 06. The Imitation Game - $6.3 million Bar for Success Considering its modest budget and strong international prospects, Taken 3 doesnt need to come anywhere close to its predecessor. Still, it really ought to be holding above $30 million. Meanwhile, $15 million would be a good start for Selma. Courtesy of Box Office Mojo (but the predictions are mine.)
Posted on: Sun, 11 Jan 2015 00:25:38 +0000