Weekend Box Office Forecast: Three new wide releases hit theaters this weekend, though none of them have the slightest chance of taking first place away from American Sniper. Among those new releases, The Boy Next Door seems to have the edge; the Jennifer Lopez thriller should wind up in second place with at least $15 million. Meanwhile, Mortdecai and Strange Magic will likely wind up below $10 million. American Sniper opened to a stunning $89.3 million last weekend, which ranks second all-time for an R-rated movie behind The Matrix Reloaded. It has also held well through the week—its $7.55 million Wednesday haul is very impressive—which is usually a good indicator of a strong second weekend. To help meet the high demand, American Sniper is expanding to 3,705 theaters, which is the widest release ever for an R-rated movie. Based on the mid-week performance, its likely that the movie earns at least $50 million this weekend. If it gets closer to $60 million, it will put the movie on track for at least $300 million total. The Boy Next Door opens at 2,602 locations this weekend, and should earn the most among this weekends newcomers. The erotic thriller stars Jennifer Lopez as a woman whose affair with a young neighbor takes a dangerous turn after she cuts things off. Advertisements set the premise up nicely, and seem to have a tongue-in-cheek quality that helps distract from some of the less savory elements of the story. Lopez had a solid box office track record in the early 2000s, when she starred in solid hits like The Cell, The Wedding Planner, Maid in Manhattan and Monster-in-Law. In the past decade, though, her only real leading role was in The Back-Up Plan, which opened to a so-so $12.2 million back in early 2010. She was also featured in Parker, which bombed on this same weekend in 2013, though that was more of a Jason Statham vehicle. Recently, shes spent a few seasons as a judge on American Idol. A strong comparison for The Boy Next Door is 2013 R-rated thriller The Call, which featured Halle Berry in her first leading role in many years. That movie exceeded expectations with a $17.1 million debut on its way to $51.9 million total; it wouldnt be entirely surprising if The Boy Next Door wound up in the same ballpark. Universal is more modestly expecting low-teen-millions for the movie, which they say is tracking best among women and Latino audiences. The Boy Next Door is the first of at least nine movies scheduled for nationwide release this year that were produced by Jason Blum (Paranormal Activity, Insidious). His connection isnt mentioned in any of the marketing material, though, which may be a smart strategy given the volume of upcoming movies that are better fits for that horror brand. Opening at 2,648 locations, Mortdecai will likely be Johnny Depps latest misfire at the domestic box office. He stars as the title character, a debonair art dealer and part time rogue who goes on a mission to recover a stolen painting. Marketing has positioned the movie as a broad slapstick comedy, and theres been a heavy emphasis placed on Mortdecais silly-looking mustache. That includes a series of posters that feature each of the main stars, including Gwyneth Paltrow and Olivia Munn, wearing a similar mustache. While this quirky choice has helped differentiate the movie, it seems too slight to really translate in to ticket sales. In general, this is a pretty odd project. Its adapted from a series of novels by British author Kyril Bonfiglioli, which were originally published in the 1970s; while they surely have some fans, this does seem to be fairly obscure source material. At the same time, the marketing campaign is strangely assuming a certain degree of familiarity with the character. This issue is discussed at length in a fun piece over at Vulture titled What the Hell is Mortdecai? Ultimately, Mortdecai will live or die on whether or not there are still moviegoers who are interested in Johnny Depps schtick. Dark Shadows and The Lone Ranger missed the mark, while The Rum Diary and Transcendence were outright flops. Mortdecai seems even less appealing than Transcendence, which managed to earn $10.9 million on opening weekend last April; look for Mortdecai to take in less than $10 million this weekend. While its going to be a bomb in the U.S., Mortdecai could save some face overseas, where Depp remains quite popular (even Transcendence managed to earn $80 million). The movie had two major international premieres this week—one in Berlin, one in London—and this type of broad, physical humor tends to play well in non-English-speaking countries. Animated movie Strange Magic seems poised for one of the worst openings ever for a movie playing at over 3,000 locations (its at 3,020 this weekend). The movie is from the mind of George Lucas, who says it was inspired by William Shakespeares A Midsummer Nights Dream. In style, though, it feels more reminiscent of 2013s Epic, which also featured tiny woodland fantasy creatures in some kind of conflict. The Strange Magic marketing material is remarkably incoherent; its difficult to identify the heroes and villains, and nearly impossible to figure out what theyre fighting over. There is some humor included that may appeal to very young children, though its likely that many parents try to direct their kids toward Paddington instead (which has received great reviews and strong word-of-mouth). While Disney is distributing the movie, their brand is completely absent from the marketing campaign. The movie therefore calls to mind other off-brand fantasy animation efforts like Happily NEver After, Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil and Legends of Oz: Dorothys Return. All of those titles opened below $7 million; its possible that Strange Magic winds up a bit higher, though it would be very surprising if it hit $10 million. First-time distributor Cinelou Films is releasing Cake at 482 locations this weekend. Star Jennifer Aniston has spent the past few months angling for an Oscar nomination for her role here, though she wound up missing the cut; still, her aggressive campaigning has generated a ton of press around a movie that may have otherwise flown completely under the radar. This will likely open in the $1 to $2 million range this weekend. Meanwhile, Roadside Attractions is releasing Mommy in to eight locations, and Focus is releasing Black Sea at five. It would be somewhat surprising if these movies reached $100,000 this weekend, though its not impossible, either (particularly for Mommy, which has very strong reviews). After earning just under $7 million over the past three months in limited release, Whiplash finally expands nationwide this weekend (a theater count isnt currently available, though its expected to be around 1,000). The timing coincides with the movie recently receiving five Academy Award nominations, including Best Picture and Best Supporting Actor (J.K. Simmons, who also just won a Golden Globe). Look for Whiplash to add at least $1 million to its total this weekend. Forecast: 01. American Sniper - $64.7 million 02. The Boy Next Door - $16.4 million 03. Paddington - $12.3 million 04. The Wedding Ringer - $11.3 million 05. Taken 3 - $10.4 million 06. The Imitation Game - $7.3 million Courtesy of Box Office Mojo (but the predictions are mine.)
Posted on: Sat, 24 Jan 2015 20:49:25 +0000
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