Weekly Article Published in Daily Pakistan Today on 21-09-2014 : New Pakistan? More disillusioned, more isolated and poorer The well coordinated and synchronised sit-ins of the great Khan and the Canadian cleric in the heart of Islamabad – now in their sixth week – have virtually paralysed the country. But despite the dwindling crowds at the dharnas, and the PTI and PAT chiefs becoming repetitive to the point of sounding pedantic, they are still controlling the national narrative. The political spectrum – both the opposition and the government — are obsessed with the ramifications of the Pakistani version of the Pussy Riots. The 24/7 news cycle has played a pivotal role in creating and exacerbating this national hysteria. Virtually all news channels, having suspended most of their regular programming, not only give saturated live coverage to the protests but also to analyse their implications in their so called special transmissions round the clock. Mostly in the evenings TuQ (Tahirul Qadri) and Imran Khan spew their venom from their container pulpits. The rest of the day the so-called analysts (that includes yours truly) discuss their ramifications and implications. Unsurprisingly, the law of diminishing returns has set in. The analysts have nothing new to add. We are told ad nauseum that the prime minister is not going to resign, and on the other hand, the dharna mongers will not quit without the scalp of the PM. A large swath of TV anchors is supporting the Khan and Allama’s narrative, hoping that somehow through some divine intervention the system will soon pack, taking down Nawaz Sharif with it. Those who disagree are branded traitors and being on the take of the Sharifs by hyperactive and sanctimonious PTI supporters on the social media, mostly through fake accounts. The sole exception amongst the privately owned channels is Geo. Being painted in the corner by the Khan and his sponsors the country’s largest media group has been forced to hit back by going out of its way to castigate the PTI and support Nawaz Sharif. The channels will have to decide soon to limit their glitzy coverage of the protests. The media barons have already started complaining of dwindling ratings. Those other happenings in Pakistan, in the region and around the world getting second berth are not even being discussed. As if Pakistan is frozen in a time capsule. So far as the government is concerned, Sharifs and their bevy of ministers are blaming even their own shortcomings on the Tahirul Qadri Imran Khan duo. The underperforming economy is a case in point. The worst floods in the past half a century wreaking havoc are now passing through Sindh. Why people were not warned in time despite ample warning time given by the forecasters still begs an answer Probably our hukamrans(rulers), obsessed with their hare brained and naive ideas about economic development, were too busy getting their egos massaged to worry about floods. Visiting widely covered fake relief camps is the new normal for our politicos. The rulers were also struggling for their very survival especially during the last week of August when it seemed that the dharnas, with a little help from the ubiquitous establishment, have cooked their goose. Now that the government has managed to survive it has also regained some of its confidence. Ministers led by the prime minister are blaming the dharnas for our economic woes. Only partly true. Exports falling in the past two months are primarily owing to the asinine obsession of our economic managers to artificially shore up the rupee against the dollar through market intervention. Similarly, the IMF refused to release the tranche due to Pakistan not owing to political instability, but primarily because Islamabad failed to fulfil the conditionalities it had previously signed upon not to issue any SROs (statuary regularity order). It is obvious that the ambitious targets set by the government only two months ago will not be met. Burgeoning circular debt of almost Rs300 billion has again cropped up. Instead of taking the nation into confidence about the impending economic doom, apart from blaming Imran and Qadri, neither the government nor the media is even talking about it. The officialdom is lamenting the fact that owing to the sit-ins the Chinese President Xi Jinxing could not visit Islamabad. Of course it would have been nice to host the Chinese president. Nonetheless, visiting New Delhi was his mainstay and Pakistan was merely a possible stopover. The ruling elite, however, wallowing in their ego refuses to see the shifting sands in the region and their appended consequences for Pakistan. The hardliner Indian Prime Minister Narindera Modi is successfully conducting economic and strategic diplomacy in Asia. Japan, wary of China’s expanding military posture and economic might, welcomed the Indian prime minister as a counterweight with open arms. Now President Xi in India has pledged widespread economic co-operation with New Delhi. Putting the festering border dispute on the backburner China has announced to invest $20 billion in India. Previously Japan had pledged $35 billion. Pakistan, a close strategic partner, should be worried that New Delhi and Beijing have cozied up, agreeing to cooperate in the civilian nuclear field as well. Obviously Modi is in an enviable position being wooed both by Beijing and Tokyo. Next week he is in the US on a state visit, going to be wined and dined by President Obama who earlier refused him visa, holding him responsible for butchering Muslims in his home state of Gujarat. On the other hand, there is no meeting scheduled between Sharif and Modi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly next week. Obviously India-Pakistan relations are frozen in time. Sharif, looking behind his back to survive, is in no position to concede anything. And unlike his predecessor Congress government, Modi is a hard bargainer. He has clearly laid out his terms to Islamabad and drawn a red line: take it or leave it. Some important factions of the TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan) declaring not to engage in terrorist activities within the country but at the same time using our badlands to stir up trouble in neighbouring Afghanistan, has not been taken kindly to in Kabul. But it has been hardly noticed by our commentarati. It is heartening that Zarb-e-Azb has borne results — a matter worth celebrating. However any move to allow the terrorists to use Pakistani territory to foment trouble in the neighbourhood will be disastrous. Hopefully our strategic sleuths have outgrown this flawed paradigm. Flushing out the terrorists on the ground should be followed up with winning the hearts and minds. No one has the time to strategise. Karachi, despite the operation launched by Sharif a year ago, remains a festering wound. Although civilian targets have been spared, recent abortive attacks on the naval dockyard in Karachi and Pakistan Air Force installations in Quetta clearly show that the militants are trying to infiltrate them. Meanwhile, naming the successor to soon-to-retire powerful ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate) chief and appointment of four new corps commanders is getting undue coverage in the media. Perhaps, as widely perceived, thedharna leadership has pinned their hopes on how the chips fall at the GHQ in their obsessive pursuit to oust the Sharifs. But in the process the whole country is at a standstill. There is little or no writ of the government. Sharif, despite surviving the joint putsch of Qadri and Imran, is considerably weakened and seems clueless in Islamabad. In this sense the dharna is a success. But in the process we have a considerably fragile democracy and polity. Is this the new Pakistan?
Posted on: Mon, 22 Sep 2014 05:47:50 +0000
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