Weekly Elliott Wave analysis of AUD/USD 2014-01-27 AUD.png AUD/USD Elliott Wave For the last couple of days, the AUD/USD pair has been trading downward, impulsive wave (v) (coloured red) of the bigger wave 1 (coloured blue) has been developing. In the 4-hour chart of this major pair, we can see that the move from the 0.9087 level (end of the (iv) wave) has been taking a form of the Ending Diagonal pattern, and inside this pattern we can see 4 out of 5 wave completed; so one more push lower early this week is going to be ideal to look for the fresh new short positions in this pair. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave 5 should retrace 161.8% of wave 4, we can define the potential targets by measuring wave 4 with take profit at 0.8625 (161.8% of wave 4). To protect our capital, we can use the invalidation point at the 0.8890 level as our stop loss level. Support and Resistance (S3) 0.8520, (S2) 0.8589, (S1) 0.8636, (PP) 0.8705, (R1) 0.8752, (R2) 0.8821, (R3) 0.8868. Trading forecast Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movements. That is why short position at level of 0.8730 with stop loss at 08890 and take profit at 0.8625 are recommended. Weekly Elliott Wave analysis of USD/CAD 2014-01-27 CADifx.png USD/CAD Elliott Wave Last week, the USD/CAD pair has been trading upwards, corrective wave (c) (coloured red) of the bigger wave [y] (coloured green) has been developing. In the 1-hour chart of this commodity pair, we can see that price has found the resistance at 1.1172 and after that we can see the corrective move lower, this correction looks like the FLAT pattern inside the wave iv (coloured red), so we should focus to potential long opportunity against the 1.0950 level next (short term invalidation). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave 5 should retrace 161.8% of wave 4, we can define the potential targets by measuring wave 4 with take profit at 1.1257 (161.8% of wave 4). Support and Resistance (S3) 1.0812, (S2) 1.0888, (S1) 1.0984, (PP) 1.1060, (R1) 1.1156, (R2) 1.1232, (R3) 1.1328. Trading forecast Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin upward movements. That is why long positions at the level of 1.1060 with stop loss at 1.0950 and take profit at 1.1257 are recommended. GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 27, 2014 2014-01-27 gbpdailysam.jpggbp4hsamy.jpg GBP/USD had been moving within a wide-ranged price zone extending between 1.5900 and 1.6250 until November 27 when a bullish breakout took place. Since this breakout, the bulls have been defending 1.6250 as a prominent support. Another successful retesting took place in mid-December that pushed the pair again to the upside. Based on the above-mentioned bullish breakout, the GBP/USD pair had a projection target around 1.6630. As suggested, bearish reversal was strongly expressed off 1.6660 (30 pips higher). The pair has declined about 150 pips few hours later. The 4H chart reveals prominent support levels located at 1.6490 and 1.6450. We can notice bullish rejection of 1.6490 compared to Friday. Bullish momentum is still manifest during todays consolidations. These support levels provided a valid buy entry as suggested on Friday. Targets should be located at 1.6575 and 1.6620 while SL as 4H closure below 1.6400. Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 28, 2014 2014-01-27 1390864143_gbpusdh1.png Trading recommendations: Pair: GBP/USD Date: 28/1/2014 According to the previous events, the price of the GBP/USD pair has still been moving between 1.6640 and 1.6515. Long buying: Buy above 1.65 in the short term with the first target of 1.6566, it might resume to 1.6634 (the weekly resistance 1). Short selling: Outlook 1: Swing trade at 1.6666 in order to sell with a traget of 1.6520 in order to test the weekly pivot point at the level of 1.6514. Outlook 2: The area below 1.6500 looks for further downside with 1.6463 and 1.6395 as targets. Notes: It should be noted that the market will turn bearish from the level of 1.6666. Volatility:145.42; therefore, the market indicates the higher volatility. Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 28, 2014 2014-01-27 usdchfh1.png Overview: The price of the USD/CHF pair is supposedly going to form strong support at the level of 0.8903 (00% of Fibonacci retracement levels in the H4 chart, it had formed the last bearish wave last week. It should be noted that the price is going to form a double bottom at this level, but the level of 0.8845 acts as strong support because it is representing the first weekly support for January 28-31, 2014. So, the saturation is likely to take place around 0.8850; moreover, the RSI indicators are also going to call for an uptrend at the same level we indicated above. Therefore, it is possible that the market will start showing bullish signs. In other words, buy deals are recommended above 0.8850 with the first target seen at the 0.8933 level and further at the 0.9000 level to test the weekly pivot point. Thus, it also should be noted that the level of 0.9001 is going to form a minor resistance (38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels) on January 28, 2014. Additionally, the level of 0.9098 will act as a major resistance. Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for January 28, 2014 2014-01-27 Technical outlook and chart setups: 1. The GBP/CHF pair has staged a counter trend rally, as discussed and expected, into the sub 1.4900 region. As seen here, the fibonacci 0.618 resistance is at 1.4960, which could be the next point of reversal. It is recommended to remain short and add further on rallies. Risk remains at 1.5150. 2. Immediate resistance is at 1.5120/30, while supports are spread through 1.4550, followed by 1.4350. 1.4200 and lower. 3. The entire structure is turning bearish for now (1.5120/30 levels should hold). The downside extensions are pointing towards 1.44 and 1.4 respectively. Trading recommendations: Hold on to short positions and add further on rallies. Stop is at 1.5150, target is at 1.4. Good luck! Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 28, 2014. 2014-01-27 Technical outlook and chart setups: 1. EUR/JPY looks to have initiated its counter trend rally ahead of the major fundamental event tomorrow. It is recommended to sell on rallies into 143.00/50 region from here on. 2. Immediate resistance is 143.00, followed by 145.50, and supports are spread through 138.50, followed by 134.00, 131.00 and lower. 3. The structure reveals that prices could still continue drifting lower from around 143.00/50 levels. As seen here, the fibonacci 0.618 support and possible downside extensions are pointing 136.00 at least. Trading recommendations: Flat for now. Looking to sell on rallies to 143.00/50. Good luck! Technical analysis of Gold for January 28, 2014. 2014-01-27 Technical outlook and chart setups: 1. The metal has retraced from its recent highs at $1,276.00/79.00. It is still expected to fall further in a corrective manner though, hence recommendations are to remain short for now. Risk remains a $1,283.00/84.00. 2. Immediate resistance is at the $1,290.00/95.00, while supports are spread through $1,230.00, followed by $1,220.00/10.00 and lower respectively. 3. Structure reveals that the metal is poised to fall towards fibonacci 0.618 support at $1,215.00, before the next rally could resume. Trading recommendations: Remain short, stop is at $1,285.00, the target is $1,220.00 Good luck! Technical analysis of Silver for January 28, 2014. 2014-01-27 Technical outlook and chart setups: 1. At the moment, Silver remains unchanged, trading within $19.50 and $20.20/30. It is recommended to remain flat and look to initiate longs towards the sub $19.00 region. 2. Immediate resistance is at $22.00, while supports are spread through $19.30/40, followed by $19.00 and $18.75 respectively. 3. Structure reveals that $18.75 could be a major low formation and utill it holds, Silver could print higher highs and higher lows. The minimum possible extension is at $21.70. Trading recommendations: Look to buy around $19.00/40.00 levels. Good luck! Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 28, 2014 2014-01-27 !UJ28012014.jpg In Asia, Japan will release the CSPI y/y and the US will release some economic data such as US-Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, US-CB Consumer Confidence, US-Richmond Manufacturing Index. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session. TODAYs TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 103.13. Resistance. 2: 102.93. Resistance. 1: 102.73. Support. 1: 102.48. Support. 2: 102.28. Support. 3: 102.07. DESCRIPTION: Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (102.07) and resistance 3 (103.13). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 28, 2014 2014-01-27 !EU28012014.jpg When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Import Prices m/m. The US will release the most important economic data such as the US-Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, US-CB Consumer Confidence, US-Richmond Manufacturing Index, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAYs TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.3739. Strong Resistance:1.3730. Original Resistance: 1.3717. Inner Sell Area: 1.3704. Target Inner Area: 1.3671. Inner Buy Area: 1.3638. Original Support: 1.3625. Strong Support: 1.3612. Breakout SELL Level: 1.3603. DESCRIPTION: Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3625 and 1.3717. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3612 and by 1.3730 as strong resistance. If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3603 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3739 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3638 and at 1.3704, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3671. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Posted on: Tue, 28 Jan 2014 09:17:32 +0000
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