Weekly Outlook 8th to 12th December 2014 The dollar rallied to fresh multi-year highs against a basket of other major currencies on Friday after a particularly strong U.S. employment report prompted investors to bring forward expectations for a hike in U.S. interest rates. The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 321,000 jobs in November, far more than the 225,000 forecast by economists and the largest monthly increase in almost three years. September’s figure was revised up to 243,000 from a previously reported 214,000 and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at a six-year low of 5.8%. The unusually strong data saw investors bring forward expectations for the first hike in U.S. interest rates to mid-2015 from September 2015 before the report. The dollar has strengthened in recent months on the back of the diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve and central banks in Europe and Japan, who are expected to continue monetary easing. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, hit a peak of 89.50, the strongest level since March 2009 and ended the day up 0.82% to 89.39. USD/JPY hit seven year highs 121.69 and was last at 121.43, up 1.38% for the day. For the week, the pair jumped 2.17%. EUR/USD fell to two-year lows of 1.2272 and settled at 1.2281, off 0.78% for the day. The euro had moved broadly higher on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi indicated that it would not embark on quantitative easing for now, saying the bank would reassess its stimulus program in the first quarter of 2015. Sterling fell to 15-month lows, with GBP/USD down 0.56% to 1.5583 in late trade, while USD/CHF ended at 18-month highs of 0.9790. The Canadian dollar fell to more than five year lows against the greenback on Friday, following the release of unexpectedly weak domestic jobs data. Statistics Canada reported that the Canadian economy shed 10,700 jobs last month, compared to expectations for jobs growth of 5,300. USD/CAD hit highs of 1.1476 before pulling back to 1.1435 in late trade, still up 0.46% for the day. In the week ahead investors will be awaiting Thursdays U.S. data on retail sales and jobless claims and Friday’s report on consumer sentiment for further indications on the strength of the economic recovery. China is to produce what will be closely watched reports on trade, consumer prices and industrial production. Central banks in New Zealand and Switzerland are also to hold policy setting meetings next week. Ahead of the coming week, Investing has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. Monday, December 8 Japan is to release final data on third quarter gross domestic product and a report on the current account. China is to publish data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports. Switzerland is to publish reports on retail sales and consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. Later Monday, Canada is to produce data on building starts and housing permits. Tuesday, December 9 Australia is to publish private sector data on business confidence. The UK is to publish a report on industrial and manufacturing production. Wednesday, December 10 Australia is to produce private sector data on consumer sentiment, as well as official data on home loans. Japan is to report on its BSI manufacturing index. China is to publish data on the consumer price index. The U.K. is to release data on the trade balance. Later in the day, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference. Thursday, December 11 Japan is to release data on core machinery orders and tertiary industry activity. RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler is to testify before the Finance and Expenditure Select Committee in Wellington. His comments will be closely watched. Australia is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate. The Swiss National Bank is to announce its libor rate and publish its monetary policy assessment. The bank is to hold a press conference to discuss the monetary policy decision. Later Thursday, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak at an event in New York. The U.S. is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, as well as the weekly report on jobless claims. Friday, December 12 China is to release data on industrial production and fixed asset investment. The euro zone is to publish a report on industrial production. The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer prices and a preliminary report on consumer sentiment.
Posted on: Sun, 07 Dec 2014 16:13:21 +0000
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